The Grade 3 Autumn Miss, a two turn turf contest for three year old fillies, is Saturday's featured race in Southern California. I'll be taking a look at that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 8 - Clm $35k N3L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Acker (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Buckstopper Kit (ML 5-1)
# 2 Uber Star (ML 8-1)
# 3 Incredible Luck (ML 6-1)
# 5 Impression (ML 4-1)
# 8 Cats Blame (ML 4-1)
C's
# 4 So Be It (ML 20-1)
# 6 Zippy Groom (ML 12-1)
# 7 Iron Alex (ML 12-1)
# 10 Upper Room (ML 12-1)
Acker is getting some much needed class relief here, and could improve going second off the layoff. Buckstopper Kit defeated unconditioned claimers two starts back over the Del Mar course. Uber Star took the Show against first level Allowance company upstate at Golden Gate. Incredible Luck could move up with the drop in class.
Impression moved to the main track four starts back, and in those four starts earned his two career victories and also grabbed a Show. So why in the world would you move him back to the turf? Well, the short answer is because that's where the money is. While Impression is still a maiden on the grass, he has actually earned more money per start when on the turf rather than the dirt. Impression hasn't run poorly in his prior turf starts, so perhaps his recent dirt form will carry over to the grass.
Cats Blame took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit for a different barn. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Honeyfromthesouth (ML 8-5)
B's
# 9 Madame Vestal (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Posit (ML 6-1)
# 6 Twirling Diamond (ML 15-1)
# 7 Miss Alegria (ML 20-1)
# 11 Slewgoodtobetrue (ML 4-1)
Honeyfromthesouth and Madame Vestal, two of the four experienced juveniles in this field, have both taken the Place in each of their two career starts. Both also failed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, which is why it's hard to have too much faith in either as a big ticket single. Note that I am not using everyone else in the field as a backup "C" Selection, because that's just too expensive a proposition to do in every race when every field has ten or more entrants.
RACE 10 - (F) The Autumn Miss (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Toinette (ML 9-5)
B's
# 4 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 4-1)
# 8 West Palm Beach (Ire) (ML 20-1)
C's
# 3 Streetwithnoname (ML 30-1)
# 9 Streak of Luck (ML 10-1)
# 10 Movie Moment (ML 30-1)
# 13 Flammetta (ML 12-1)
# 14 Hey Negrita (ML 10-1)
Toinette is best here by enough where you could give serious consideration to making her a big ticket single. But Ms Bad Behavior could be far enough in front early that Toinette may have too much to do late. On the other hand it could all fall apart up front; in which case West Palm Beach (Ire) looks to be the one that will be running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the ones I consider the best of the rest.
RACE 11 - Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Lambo Luxx (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Ketos (ML 5-1)
# 8 St. Reno (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Bitte (ML 8-1)
# 3 Baby Bear's Soup (ML 12-1)
# 5 Towards the Light (ML 20-1)
# 6 I'll Wrap It Up (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Reverend Al (ML 12-1)
Lambo Luxx misses by a head of entering this contest with a three race winning streak. Ketos could improve with the blinkers coming back off. St. Reno was victorious one level below today's late time out. The best of the rest make up the backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 5 with 5 with 11 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,8,9 with 5,9 with 4,5,8 with 4,8,11 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,6,7,10 with 5 with 5 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1,6,7,11 with 5 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 5 with 3,9,10,13,14 with 11 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 5 with 5 with 2,3,5,6 $2.00
Total: $63.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:40 EDT / 3:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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