10/21/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The good news is that Sunday's featured race in Southern California, the Sunny Slope Stake for juveniles, has been carded among the final four contests on the day.  The bad news is that, while eleven were nominated for this event, only four will be leaving the gate.  The puzzling news is, shouldn't the Sunny Slope be run down the hill, rather than over the main track?  Anyway, all that aside, let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Alw 50000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 7 Worthy Turk (Morning Line 3-1)

B’s

# 2 Snazzy Dresser (ML 4-1)

# 3 Exultation (ML 5-1)

# 5 Offshore (ML 4-1)

# 8 Buckys Pick (ML 8-1)

# 9 Spa Shackalacka (ML 5-1)

C's

# 4 Heartfullofstars (ML 20-1)

# 6 Wild Wild Kingdom (ML 6-1)

# 10 Stylistics United (ML 50-1)

# 11 Zapana's Game (ML 50-1)

Scratch # 1 Catch Fire (ML 20-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions.  None of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once in their respective lifetime.

Worthy Turk is the only entrant in this field to have defeated winners, as Worthy Turk's solo score came at this class level back in July at Del Mar.  Snazzy Dresser was less than a length behind Worthy Turk at the line last time out while competing on the flats.  Exultation was much improved on the dirt last time out; perhaps that form will carryover to the Santa Anita hill.

Buckys Pick took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit over the main track.  Spa Shackalacka showed good early speed while routing over the Del Mar grass last time out; often such performances precede a notable effort in first tries down the hill.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - [R] The Sunny Slope $70k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Savagery (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Seven Scents (ML 8-5)

# 2 Shark (ML 15-1)

# 3 Sparky Ville (ML 2-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 4 Rickey B (ML 6-1) and # 6 Principe Carlo (ML 20-1)

Seriously, how is the Sunny Slope not carded for the downhill turf?  Anyway, the restriction on this race is  that it's open only to juveniles that have not won a Graded Stake.

With defections and scratches, this event is down to just for runners; so I'm just going "ALL" in for this leg.  I made Savagery my top pick here despite the fact that he's exiting a Maiden Claiming contest, because I think Savagery's pace figures last time out are just too good to ignore.  But seriously, with only four runners, I think it's best not to spend too much time analyzing this race.  

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $12.5k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 K P's Smokin (ML 6-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 C. R. Golden Queen (ML 50-1)
# 2 Reinahermosa (ML 20-1)

# 3 Cee Sam's Girl (ML 20-1)

# 4 Girl Drama (ML 7-2)

# 5 Summer Down Now (ML 12-1)

# 6 Inland Empire (ML 4-1)
# 8 Atrevida (ML 3-1)

# 9 Pray for Corday (ML 8-1)

# 10 Our Slick Chick (ML 4-1)

The conditions for this one is that if your filly or mare is four years old or older, she cannot have won two races in her lifetime.  If your filly is three years old, then there is no lifetime Win restriction.  Note that Atrevida is the only runner in this field to have visited the winner's circle twice in her career.

K P's Smokin won by the length of the stretch the last time that she routed on a Fast dirt track.  K P's Smokin now goes first off the claim for Trainer Steve Knapp, who tends to do well with such.  If K P's Smokin repeats, or even comes close to, that prior effort around two turns, then she should win easily Sunday.  But just in case, everyone else in the field is being used as a backup "C" Selection.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 6 Shaky Alibi (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Blitzkrieg (ML 8-1)

# 9 Factorial (ML 4-1)

# 10 Pitino (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Paladar (ML 12-1)
# 4 Raging Tiger (ML 15-1)
# 5 Blaze of Glory (ML 15-1)
# 7 Erotic (ML 12-1)
# 8 Big Buzz (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Persuasive Cat (ML 12-1)

Shaky Alibi and Blitzkrieg both showed good early speed when routing over the flats; such tend to do well when charging down the hill.  Factorial ran well enough last time out in his first hill try that any move forward off that effort could put Factorial in the winner's circle Sunday.  If Pitino can bring the form that he showed in either of his two prior races to the hill, then Pitino can certainly win Sunday.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 5 with 7 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,7,8,9 with ALL with 7 with 2,6,9,10 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6,10,11 with 5 with 7 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 6 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 5 with 7 with 3,4,5,7,8 $2.50

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:08 EDT / 3:08 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo