10/28/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Comma To The Top, a Listed Stakes scheduled for two turns over the main track, is Sunday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 11 North County Guy (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Fashionably Fast (ML 3-1)

# 7 Silver Summer (ML 20-1)

# 8 Hollywood Square (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Jay Makes Us Laugh (ML 12-1)

# 2 Love My Bud (ML 15-1)

# 5 Preacher Roe (ML 8-1)
# 6 Shaymin (ML 12-1)
# 9 Duke of Fallbrook (ML 50-1)

# 10 Nevermissesabeat (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 4 Plain Wrap (ML 30-1)

Note that this race is restricted to runners that are California bred OR California sired; so since Love My Bud was sired by Tizbud (who stands at Harris Farms), Love My Bud is eligible to run here despite being Kentucky bred.

North County Guy tries the Santa Anita Hill for the first time, after closing well in his turf debut at Del Mar last time out.  If Fashionably Fast can carry his dirt form onto the turf, then Fashionably Fast should win by the length of the stretch.

Silver Summer has proven to be a model of inconsistency throughout his career; but if Silver Summer can summon his best today, then he'll be the one getting his picture taken.  Hollywood Square was victorious in his one prior try charging down the hill.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k B - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Haylord (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 5 Topgallant (ML 4-1)

# 6 Premium Forest (ML 15-1)

# 7 Glorious Crown (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Original Intent (ML 6-1)

# 3 Livin On Prayer (ML 6-1)

# 4 Point Guard (ML 4-1)

# 8 Lucky Patrick (ML 50-1)
# 9 Hard Arch (ML 15-1)

The conditions for this one state that if your horse is four years old or older, he cannot run here if he has won two or more races in his lifetime.  However, if your horse is three years old, then there is no lifetime Win restriction.  Note that Premium Forest is the only runner in this field to have visited the winner's circle twice in his career.

Haylord has taken the Place at this approximate class level in each of his last two starts.  Topgallant could move up with a return to the main track.  Premium Forest is getting some class relief here.  Glorious Crown looks to be in good form, and tends to run well on both turf and dirt.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - The Comma To The Top $75k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Tatters to Riches (ML 9-5)

B's

# 4 St. Joe Bay (ML 4-1)

# 7 Battle of Midway (ML 8-5)

C's

# 3 Roman Rosso (Arg) (ML 4-1)

# 5 All Out Blitz (ML 12-1)

# 6 Very Very Stella (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 2 Curlin Road (ML 20-1)

Tatters to Riches had no problems going around two turns for the first time last time out, and should do well with the rail draw today.  St. Joe Bay could improve with the return to two turn racing.

Battle of Midway, winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, is obviously not the horse now that he was then.  I say obviously because if he was, Battle of Midway would be running next week at Churchill Downs in this year's edition of The Breeders' Cup.  In his two starts since un-retiring from stud duty due to being sub-fertile, Battle of Midway has been less than impressive.  But perhaps Battle of Midway will wake up with the class drop; and while I certainly don't expect Battle of Midway to return to his 2017 form today, I think he just may get back to a point where he'll be able to win.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Falcone (ML 9-5)

B's

# 10 Breakers Isle (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Causeididitmyway (ML 10-1)
# 4 Starship Chewy (ML 50-1)
# 5 When Jesus Walked (ML 30-1)
# 6 Super Classic (ML 30-1)
# 7 Magnum Maduro (ML 50-1)
# 8 Mr. Esken (ML 50-1)
# 9 Implicitly (ML 4-1)

# 11 Bitter Ring Home (ML 4-1)
# 12 Hachiman (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 1 Pointed (ML 12-1) and # 13 Aussie Fox (ML 6-1)

Falcone has taken the Place in each of his last three races, again both claiming and non-claiming maidens.  Breakers Isle took the Show against non-claiming maidens two starts back.  Everyone else goes on a backup ticket as a "C" Selection.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 11 with 2 with 1 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,7,8,11 with 2,5,6,7 with 1,4,7 with 3,10 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,9,10 with 2 with 1 with 3 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 1,3,4,8,9 with 1 with 3 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 3,5,6 with 3 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 1 with 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12 $4.50

Total: $60.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:12 EDT / 3:12 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo