Thursday, February 11, 2016

2/11/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Fillies and Mares dominate the back half of Thursday's program at Santa Anita, with three of the final four races being carded for those on the distaff side.  Indeed, there were so many entries for today's feature that it had to be split.  We'll be looking at both divisions below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 5 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A's

# 1 Hundi (Ire) (Morning Line 5-2)
# 6 Tale of Papa Nick (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Elementar (ML 8-1)
# 3 Entrechat (ML 3-1)
# 7 Hennythelovepenny (ML 8-1)

A pure Allowance race without a claiming option; don't see too many of those in Southern California.  Anyway, note that Race 7 below is the other division of this contest.

Hundi (Ire) took the Place charging down the hill last month and seems likely to improve going second off the layoff.  Tale of Papa Nick's two career Wins both came charging down the hill.  Also note that Trainer Richard Baltas does quite well with runners returning from a vacation approximating the length of time that Tale of Papa Nick has been away.

Elementar gets some class relief, but also switches to a barn with a much lower Winning Percentage.  Entrechat took a big step forward last time out after being on the shelf for almost eight months.  Hennythelovepenny tries the turf for the first time while regaining the services of Jockey Eddie Maldonado, who was on her back the last time that she got her picture taken.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Finest City (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 4 Enchanting Lady (ML 9-5)

C's

# 1 Stealth Drone (ML 6-1)
# 6 Pica (ML 6-1)

Finest City just missed winning the Grade 2 Santa Monica by a head last month; a repeat of that effort could see Finest City winning today by the length of the stretch.  Enchanting Lady returns after an extended layoff for Trainer Bob Baffert, and may need a race; but Enchanting Lady is getting some significant class relief after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts.

Stealth Drone is a lifetime two-for-three over this main track, and has finished in the Trifecta in seven of her eight career starts on a fast dirt track.  Pica won at this class level over this main track two starts back.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A's

# 4 Nite Delite (ML 4-1)
# 6 Perdona (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Bert's Melody (ML 4-1)
# 7 So Sweetitiz (ML 15-1)

C's

None

As previously mentioned, this race has the same distance, surface, and conditions as Race 5 above.

Toss the effort on dirt two starts back, and it's clear that Nite Delite is much improved since adding the blinkers.  Perdona took the Show in each of her last two starts against Optional Claiming N1X company.

Bert's Melody held her form last time out when moving up from the state bred ranks, but the extended layoff is a concern.  So Sweetitiz tries the turf for the first time; if her early speed from the main track carries over, So Sweetitiz could be crossing the wire before many of these get rolling.

RACE 8 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 El Nino Terrible (ML 3-1)
# 2 Luckbox Sam (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Celebrity Status (ML 4-1)
# 7 Formally Wild (ML 3-1)
# 8 Saint Dermot (ML 6-1)

C's

None

El Nino Terrible took the Place at this class level last time out, and took the Place against more expensive the last time that he competed around two turns.  Luckbox Sam should improve with the drop in class and the increased distance.

Celebrity Status made a nice move forward last time out, and could get a nice stalking trip today.  Formally Wild took the Place after leading most of the way against more expensive last time out.  Saint Dermot has finished in the Trifecta four of the five times that he has competed on the Santa Anita main track.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,6 with 2 with 4,6 with 1,2 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 2,4 with 2,4,6,7 with 1,2,4,7,8 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,7 with 2 with 4,6 with 1,2 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 1,6 with 4,6 with 1,2 $8.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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