Sunday, February 21, 2016

2/21/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Fillies and mares dominate the latter portion of today's card at Santa Anita, as three of the final four races have been carded for those on the distaff side.  We'll be looking at those below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $16k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Giant Ego (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 2 No Contingency (ML 3-1)
# 6 Gnarly Dude (ML 3-1)
# 7 Hot Lightning (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 8 Oh Brother Oh (No Line).

Giant Ego drops in class after having finished in the Trifecta against more expensive stock in each of his last three races.  No Contingency and Gnarly Dude move up in class after easy victories last time out.  Hot Lightning defeated more expensive last time out.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/Alw 32000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Paschalitsa (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 4 Yodelsong (ML 4-1)
# 7 Casino Fever (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Last things first: if you're willing to put your three year old filly up for sale for $32k, you can enter her here.  Period.  However, if you don't want to say goodbye to your horse to someone willing to give you $32k, then your runner must:

1) Have started for a claiming price of $40k or less (make it $50k or less if the horse is California bred or sired);

AND

2) Have never won two races

Note that the last time Yodelsong ran in one of these (back on January 24) she was in for the tag (on that day it was $40k) because she had never run with a price tag on her head before.  However, since that January 24 contest Yodelsong, a California bred, has run in a claiming race for $50k; therefore, Yodelsong does not have to run with a price tag on her head today.

Note that the only runner in this field that is up for sale is # 1 Two Steps of Glory (ML 12-1), and that is truly optional on the part of her connections, as Two Steps of Glory has only one career Win, and has started for a claiming price of under $40k.

Paschalitsa was within a length of the winner at the wire at this approximate class level last time out.  Yodelsong took the Show at this approximate class level two starts back, and seemed to move forward last time out in the aforementioned contest against open $50k claimers.  Casino Fever, trained by Bob Baffert, tries winners for the first time after graduating with ease last time out.

RACE 8 - [S] (F) OC 20k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Peggy Sue's Loose (ML 5-2)
# 4 Charming Starlet (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 6 Diamond Cut (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lily Kai (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Diamond Cut and Peggy Sue's Loose took the Place and Show, respectively, at this approximate class level last time out.  I give the edge today to Peggy Sue's Loose because the shorter distance could make it much more difficult for Diamond Cut to close at the wire.

Charming Starlet defeated open $32k claimers upstate last time out, albeit on the synthetic.  Charming Starlet has finished in the Trifecta in half of her eight career starts on the Santa Anita turf.  Toss the one start on dirt, and Lily Kai has been showing a steadily improving form in each of her career starts.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Black Clover (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Straight N Strong (ML 3-1)
# 7 Jersey Chaser (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Prowling Around (ML 6-1)
# 5 Sharpest One (ML 8-1)
# 8 Princess Kendra (ML 10-1)

This race can be considered as the other division of yesterday's finale, as it is carded under the same conditions and will be run at the identical distance.

Black Clover took the Place at this class level last time out.  Straight N Strong gets the blinkers off today; note that Straight N Strong earned better Beyer Speed Figures in the three races in which she ran with blinkers off compared to her last three contests with the hood on (of course, the change in trainers may have also been a factor in that drop off).

Jersey Chaser and Prowling Around are a pair of first time starters going for connections who tend to do well with such in Maiden Claiming contests.  I give the edge to Jersey Chaser based on the better morning works.

Sharpest One threw in a real clunker last time out; but a return to her prior form could make her competitive here.  Princess Kendra wanted no part of two turns last time out, and should improve with the cutback in distance.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 8 with 2,4 with 3 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,6,7 with 4,7,8 with 2,4,6,7 with 3,4,7 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3 with 8 with 2,4 with 1,5,8 $3.00

Total: $77.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:09 EST / 3:09 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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