Saturday, February 20, 2016

2/20/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

On this day in 1847 Major Ben McCulloch's Texas Rangers encountered Santa Anna's forces at Encarnacion.  This prompted General Zachary Taylor to withdraw his army from Saltillo to Buena Vista*, setting the stage for The Battle of Buena Vista to be fought on February 22-23, 1847.  And now, today, with hopefully a lot less anger and bloodshed, we turn our attention to Santa Anita, where we'll be looking at the Grade 2 Buena Vista as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

* - Actually, Taylor withdrew to Angostura, about a mile and a quarter south of Buena Vista; but there's no Angostura Stakes being run today, so we'll just go with Buena Vista.

RACE 6 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt (EDIT - This race has been taken off the turf - selections have been changed)

A’s

# 5 Mr. Sexy (Morning Line 4-1)
# 6 Guns Loaded (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 2 Gotham News (ML 15-1)
# 7 K Thirty Eight (ML 12-1)

C's

# 10 County Lineman (ML 12-1)
# 11 Perfectly Majestic (ML 9-2)

Scratch # 1 Horse Laugh (ML 30-1), # 8 De Treville (GB) (ML 5-2), and # 9 Eighty Three (ML 7-2).

If Mr. Sexy's speed carries over to the main track, then he could be the one leading this field all the way around the track.  Guns Loaded was in the Trifecta the last two times that he competed on dirt.  Guns Loaded and K Thirty Eight are also the only runners in this field with multiple wins on a fast dirt track.

Gotham News last victory cam on a fast dirt rack, in an OC / N2X contest at Monmouth Park.  County Lineman and Perfectly Majestic have done reasonably well when competing on dirt in the past, though their lack of early speed may leave them each with too much to do late.

RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Bad Read Sanchez (ML 2-1)
# 4 Prince Valiant (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 8 Undergroundrailroad (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Kenjiislucky (ML 4-1)
# 6 Outthink'em (ML 50-1)
# 9 I'm Zonin (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 7 Coyote Fly (ML 15-1).

Last year saw Bad Read Sanchez win his debut by ten lengths, take the Place in the W. L. Proctor Memorial, and grab the Show in the Grade 2 Best Pal.  Bad Read Sanchez competed in the Opening Day of this meet in the Grade 1 Malibu; now today, less than two months later, Bad Read Sanchez is up for sale for just $12.5k.

While the case could be made (based upon his most recent efforts) that Bad Read Sanchez needed to drop into the claiming ranks to get some much needed class relief, seeing him fall all the way to $12.5k as his first ever For Sale price sends up all sorts of red flags.  The first thought that comes to mind is that there must be an injury; but Bad Read Sanchez's works on February 7th and 13th seem to indicate that he's still plenty healthy enough to compete.  So if it's not his health then the question remains: why sell him so cheap?

Anyway, Bad Read Sanchez is clearly the classiest runner in this field, and on paper should win this contest by the length of the stretch.  But I think that there are enough questions here to warrant us spreading a little wide in this race.

Prince Valiant took the Place against classier foes last time out.  Undergroundrailroad graduated by daylight last time out; but the effort was such that it put him on the shelf for thirteen months.  Kenjiislucky took the Show at this class level last time out.

Outthink'em has been showing good early speed in his more recent contests, and could catch this field napping.  I'm Zonin should improve with the return to one turn racing.

RACE 8 - (F) The Buena Vista (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Her Emmynency (ML 6-1)

B's

# 11 Pauline's Love (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Keri Belle (ML 5-1)
# 6 Prize Exhibit (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Stormy Lucy (ML 7-2)

Program scratches are # 5 Chocolatier (Fr) (No Line) and # 14 Minks Aprise (NL).  Also scratch # 8 Glory (ML 6-1).

Her Emmynency took the Grade 1 QE II Cup last time out, and was victorious in her only prior try over this turf course.  Prize Exhibit (GB) took the Grade 2 Monrovia charging down the hill two starts back, and looked reasonably good in her seven furlong workout on the main track back on January 23.

Pauline's Love just missed in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss two starts back, and could be the one setting all the early fractions.  Keri Belle and Stormy Lucy were just a nose apart at the wire in the Grade 3 Megahertz last time out; but they'll need to improve off that effort in order to get the Win here.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Papa's Maggie (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Valborg Matilda (ML 20-1)
# 5 Patience Lady (ML 7-2)
# 7 Pam's Joy (ML 8-1)
# 11 Nakoma (ML 20-1)

C's

# 4 Zira Gold (ML 7-2)
# 6 One Smart Cat (ML 4-1)

Program scratches are # 1 Prowling Around (NL); # 12 Letmetakeaselfie (NL); # 13 Straight N Strong (NL); and # 14 Sharpest One (NL).  Also scratch # 3 Irish Devil (ML 20-1).

Papa's Maggie showed good early speed last time out, as well as marked improvement over her debut.  Patience Lady crossed the wire first at this class level two starts back, but a DQ cost her the diploma.

Valborg Matilda, Pam's Joy, and Nakoma are a trio of debut runners by sires whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  Zira Gold drops in for a tag for the first time in her career; but it seems like she'd rather be on grass.  One Smart Cat is also first time starter who has been working reasonably well leading up to this contest.

EDIT: Selections have changed since Race 6 was taken off the turf.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5,6 with 3,4 with 9 with 10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 3,4,8 with 9,11 with 2,5,7,10,11 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 10,11 with 3,4 with 9 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 2,6,9 with 9 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 3,4 with 1,6,10 with 10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 3,4 with 9 with 4,6 $4.00

Total: $79.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:09 EST / 3:09 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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