Sunday, September 11, 2016

9/11/16 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

"When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, 'Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.'" - Fred Rogers

The Beverly J. Lewis is today's featured race at Los Al, a six furlong contest for those on the distaff side.  In fact, all of the final four races today are exactly six furlongs; and we'll be looking at each of them below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Spiritual (Morning Line 8-5)
# 6 Ryderroo (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 1 Meadow Blossom (ML 3-1)
# 2 Papa Mambo (ML 9-5)

C's

None

Spiritual was victorious in in her only prior try over this main track.  That contest was also her debut, which shows that Spiritual is capable of winning off just works.  Ryderroo had to work the night shift here in order to graduate; but Ryderroo is the one in this field that could be running best late, and she will almost definitely be ignored by many in the wagering pools.

Meadow Blossom was in over her head last time out, and should appreciate the drop in class.  Papa Mambo is likewise dropping in class and should do well here, though I suspect Papa Mambo may be better suited to two turn racing.

RACE 7 - OC 62k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Toews On Ice (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 1 Heir of Storm (ML 3-1)
# 4 Texas Two Step (ML 5-1)
# 5 Guy Code (ML 12-1)
# 6 Pay The Fine (ML 5-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 3 Kentuckian (ML 5-2)

Toews On Ice is a Graded Stakes winner (along with being the winner of several listed stakes) who is returning to action from a layoff of more than four months.  Toews On Ice, in his form from earlier this year, coupled with the natural maturation that you would expect from a three year old colt, should handle this field with no problem.  But it strikes me as unlikely that if Toews On Ice was still in his stakes winning form that he would be offered for sale here.  So we make Toews On Ice our "A" Selection based upon his back class, and use everyone else in this contest as our "B" Selections; because once you get past the field's top lifetime earner, anyone can win this race.

RACE 8 - (F) The Beverly J. Lewis $75k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Enola Gray (ML 2-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Uptown Twirl (ML 8-1)
# 2 Bendable (ML 5-2)

Enola Gray is the best horse in this field, hands down.  But Enola Gray is trying open company for the first time; so we bow to our more cautious instincts and toss in a couple of backups, just in case.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Atlantic Slew (ML 2-1)
# 7 U Go Girl (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Lea's Reward (ML 5-2)
# 8 Big Miss Steak (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Atlantic Slew took the Show against more expensive (albeit state bred) company two starts back.  This is the cheapest Atlantic Slew has been offered for sale in her career.  U Go Girl took the Place at this class level last time out.

Lea's Reward took the Show in her debut at this class level last time out.  Big Miss Steak is a first time starter for Trainer Mike Machowsky, who tends to do well when sending out debut runners with a price tag on their head.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 2 with 4 with 4,7 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6 with ALL with 4 with 1,4,7,8 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2 with 1,2 with 4,7 $4.00

Total: $48.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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