RACE 8 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Lyrical Passage (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Activated (ML 12-1)
# 6 Offshore (ML 4-1)
# 8 Iwobi (ML 9-2)
# 9 Pacific Coast Hwy (ML 7-2)
None of the Also Eligibles draw in; so scratch # 11 Bourque (ML 5-2); # 12 Hogan (ML 20-1); # 13 Sergio (ML 4-1); and # 14 Mizzen Me (ML 4-1)
All the experienced runners in this field were on The Also Eligible List; so with their removal, this becomes a contest on the turf for juveniles, not just trying grass for the first time, but also making their career debuts.
Now the easiest way to handle such a challenge would be to just hit the "ALL" button; and when all is said and done, that may also prove to have been the wisest way to handle the challenge. But going the "ALL" route in a ten horse field in a Pick Four means either tossing out legitimate contenders in the subsequent legs, or completely blowing your bankroll; neither of which I'm prepared to do, certainly not on the Saturday of a three day weekend.
Lyrical Passage was sired by Unbridled's Song, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking, as well as on the turf. Lyrical Passage is trained by Simon Callaghan, who tends to do well when sending out runners for their debuts; well enough to be in the black as far as ROI. Lyrical Passage shows no significant breaks in his training schedule going back to mid-July. Lyrical Passage will be ridden today by Rafael Bejarano.
Activated was sired by Medaglia d'Oro; but the concern with Activated is the break in training for almost all of July. Offshore was sired by Exchange Rate; but the concern is that Offshore is trained by Neil Drysdale, whose runners don't often win at first asking. Iwobi was sired by Distorted Humor; but the concern is that Iwobi is trained by Carla Gaines, who is not having a good meet. Pacific Coast Hwy, the "other" Callaghan, missed approximately three weeks of training after his workout of July 31.
Obviously, I think that the above four runners that we are using as "C" Selections have a legitimate chance to win today; otherwise they would not be on our tickets at all. But I think Lyrical Passage's chances today are significantly greater than theirs; enough so, in fact, to make Lyrical Passage a single on our big ticket; a decision which, not so incidentally, allows us to go deep in the other legs in this sequence. Is that the right move? Well, we'll find out soon enough.
RACE 9 - The Del Mar Debutante (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Champagne Room (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Miss Southern Miss (ML 8-1)
# 2 Morganite (ML 7-2)
# 3 American Cleopatra (ML 5-2)
# 5 Noted and Quoted (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Champagne Room has worked well since her victory in the Sorrento. Miss Southern Miss, second to Champagne Room in the Grade 2 Sorrento, has yet to finish out of the Exacta despite a couple of rough starts.
Morganite won her debut last time out, crossing the wire more than a length in front of Champagne Room. American Cleopatra and Noted and Quoted, both trained by Bob Baffert, were daylight winners last time out. American Cleopatra appears to be the quicker of the two in their morning works; but the decision to remove the hood from American Cleopatra for her second career start is a rather curious one (though it is a move with which Baffert often succeeds).
RACE 10 - OC 80k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Spanish Hombre (ML 8-1)
# 8 Annie's Candy (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 3 It's The Ice (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 7 Fabozzi (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Rye (ML 6-1)
# 5 Unapologetic (ML 15-1)
# 6 Tribal Fighter (ML 9-2)
# 12 Mittersill (Ire) (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 9 Diplodocus (ML 12-1) and # 14 Materialistic (ML 10-1). Bring in # 13 Nuke Laloosh (ML 10-1) off The Also Eligible List.
Spanish Hombre and Annie's Candy were within a half length of each other and within two lengths of the winner at the wire last time out, at this class level. That was the first try routing on the turf course for both Spanish Hombre and Annie's Candy.
It's The Ice (GB) shows a steadily improving form. Fabozzi took the Show at this approximate class level last time out.
Rye and Unapologetic are both moving up in class; but their recent form suggests that they may fit here. Tribal Fighter tries the grass for the first time; Trainer Richard Baltas tends to do well with such. Mittersill (Ire), making his North American debut, has had only one truly bad outcome in his five career starts.
RACE 11 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Picture Tube (ML 5-2)
# 10 Paythebank (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Awesome Image (ML 5-1)
# 5 Bernardjfortunato (ML 12-1)
# 5 Bernardjfortunato (ML 12-1)
# 6 Little Mustard (ML 6-1)
# 9 Gavin Streetsense (ML 12-1)
# 9 Gavin Streetsense (ML 12-1)
C's
# 7 Money Makin Mike (ML 8-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Hunting You (ML 20-1) and # 14 Iowa Tiger (ML 10-1)
Picture Tube, trained by Bob Baffert, drops in for a tag for the first time. Paythebank drops in for the lowest tag of his career. Awesome Image missed graduation by just a neck at this class level last time out.
Bernardjfortunato took the Show against more expensive two starts back, and the Place in the start before that. Little Mustard has taken the Place twice in his last three races at this class level. Gavin Streetsense disappointed as the Post Time Favorite against more expensive last time out. Money Makin Mike took the Show at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 4 with 2,8 with 3,10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 2,3,7,8 with 2,3,5,6,9,10 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,9 with 4 with 2,8 with 3,10 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 1,5,6,12 with 3,10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 2,8 with 7 $1.00
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:29 EDT / 5:29 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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