Saturday, September 24, 2016

9/24/16 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

So we come to the final Saturday of the Fairplex / Pomona / L.A. County Fair Meet at Los Alamitos, with the meet's featured race, the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby, headlining the card.  We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Bernin Sensation (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 6 Saldamente (ML 3-1)
# 8 T. Montana (ML 8-1)

C's

# 4 Gentrified (ML 5-1)
# 5 He's All That (ML 12-1)
# 12 Sheer Flattery (ML 10-1)


Scratch # 10 Thisisourstory (No Line)

Bernin Sensation, trained by Bob Baffert, missed graduation by just a nose in his debut last time out.  Saldamente took the Place at this class level in his debut two starts back.  T. Montana flashed good early speed in his debut last time out.

Gentrified, trained by Doug O'Neill, showed late interest in his debut last time out; perhaps today he'll start running at the same time as the rest of the field.  He's All That and Sheer Flattery are first time starters whose sires (Harlan's Holiday and Flatter, respectively) produce more than their fair share of debut winners.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Gutsy Ruler (ML 5-1)
# 10 Tough Sunday (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 6 Midnight Officer (ML 20-1)
# 11 Pedro Cerrano (ML 11-1)

C's

# 2 Jury (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Anthonysgotgame (ML 12-1) and # 5 Eltiojohnny (ML 6-1)

Gutsy Ruler and Tough Sunday have have proven themselves to be competitive at this class level.  Pedro Cerrano is undefeated in two career starts; but today will be his toughest class test.  Jury returns to action after an extended layoff for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.  Since Jury was a debut winner two starts back, we know that he can win off just works.  

RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Semper Fortis (ML 3-1)
# 7 Accelerate (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Chris and Dave (ML 20-1)
# 8 Blackjackcat (ML 5-2)

Semper Fortis and Accelerate were within a length of each other at the wire in The Shared Belief last time out.  Chris and Dave is making a big class jump up the ladder from the claiming ranks, but Chris and Dave could be find himself sitting a nice trip today behind the early leaders.  Blackjackcat looks to be on the wrong surface; but if Blackjackcat brings his turf form to the dirt, then he could be in the mix at the wire.

RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 He's a Knockout (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Cavalry (ML 5-1)
# 3 Money Makin Mike (ML 4-1)
# 7 Star Express (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Regal Reign (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 9 Glitter's Song (ML 20-1) and # 12 Lucky Snow (ML 20-1)

He's a Knockout didn't feel much like running last time out, and showed it by being fractious in the gate.  Prior to that contest He's a Knockout had finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his three starts at this class level.

Cavalry could be speed on the rail.  Money Makin Mike took the Show at this class level the last time that he competed around two turns.  Star Express has shown a steadily improving form in each of his last three starts.  Regal Reign tries two turns for the first time; her breeding suggests that he may prefer it (though his breeding also suggests that he would prefer being on the grass).

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 9,10 with 5,7 with 5 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,7,8 with 6,9,10,11 with 5,7 with 1,3,5,7 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5,12 with 9,10 with 5,7 with 5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2 with 5,7 with 5 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9,10 with 4,8 with 5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9,10 with 5,7 with 2 $2.00

Total: $63.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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