As expected, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Classic Empire's return to racing has scared away a significant number of runners from today's Kentucky Derby prep. What wasn't expected was that those runners were scared away from the Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita, since Classic Empire is making his return in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. But all that is just a secondary concern to us, as we focus on the final four races on the Santa Anita card as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Play Hard to Get (Morning Line 5-1)
# 12 Gangster (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 5 Zip the Monkey (ML 15-1)
# 6 Path of David (ML 6-1)
# 8 Fabozzi (ML 6-1)
# 9 Curlin Rules (ML 7-2)
C's
# 10 Kenjistorm (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 11 Hoffenheim (ML 8-1) and # 14 Sugar Buzz (ML 15-1). Bring in # 13 Sawyer's Hill (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible list.
Play Hard to Get gets some class relief for his 2017 debut, and there should be enough pace in here for him to chase. The only concern for Play Hard to Get is if eight furlongs is enough real estate for him to shift into his highest gear.
Gangster and Zip the Monkey are two that could benefit from the cutback in distance. Path of David gets some much needed class relief. Fabozzi moves up in class after winning by daylight last time out. Kenjistorm goes first time for the barn of Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such.
Curlin Rules would rate much higher in my book if he wasn't adding blinkers today, as the one prior race in which Curlin Rules wore the hood resulted in the worst defeat of his career. But that contest was also the only time that Curlin Rules tried Graded Stakes company, so it's possible that the equipment change wasn't to blame.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/C - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Plane Lucky (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Calm the Sea (ML 7-2)
# 6 Avicii (ML 3-1)
C's
None
Plane Lucky took the Place at this approximate class level last time out, with Calm the Sea taking the Show behind him. Calm the Sea could move up today going second off the freshening for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with such. Avicii goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who's been winning everything in sight of late.
RACE 8 - The San Antonio (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Hoppertunity (ML 2-1)
B's
# 4 El Huerfano (ML 12-1)
# 7 Accelerate (ML 5-2)
C's
# 5 Mor Spirit (ML 3-1)
# 6 Dalmore (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Prospect Park (ML 10-1)
Hopportunity's poor outing last time out in the Grade 1 Clark could be the start of an inevitable decline; or it could be just a one off poor performance from which he will no doubt rebound. Needless to say, my opinion rests with the latter rather than the former, which is one reason why Hoppertunity sits atop my selections for this contest. But the primary reason why I have Hoppertunity as an "A" Selection here is because, even if he's not at his best, Hoppertunity is clearly the best horse in this field.
El Huerfano could be the speed of the speed here, and could steal it on the front end if today's distance proves to be insufficient to allow Hoppertunity to hit his best stride. Accelerate could find himself with a good stalking trip, getting first run at the early leaders.
Mor Spirit, the "other" Baffert, tries older opponents for the first time. Dalmore took the Show behind Accelerate in the Grade 2 San Pasquale last time out.
RACE 9 - The San Marcos (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Texas Ryano (ML 3-1)
# 12 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 10-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 A Red Tie Day (ML 15-1)
# 2 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 3 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 4 Blue Tone (ML 12-1); # 7 Gustnado (ML 20-1); # 9 Conquest Daddyo (ML 12-1); # 10 Some in Tieme (Brz) (ML 15-1); and # 14 Frank Consequence (ML 6-1)
Texas Ryano won the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup by as many as he wanted to last time out. Hi Happy (Arg) could improve off his North American debut with the increase in real estate.
A Red Tie Day has enough early foot that he could find himself with a nice rail trip here. Flamboyant (Fr) won last year's running of this event. Itsinthepost (Fr) could get a nice stalking trip here, with first run at the early leaders.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,12 with 5 with 1 with 5,12 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,8,9,12 with 2,5,6 with 1,4,7 with 5,12 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 10 with 5 with 1 with 5,12 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2,12 with 5 with 5,6 with 5,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2,12 with 5 with 1 with 1,2,3 $3.00
Total: $66.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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