Sunday, February 5, 2017

2/5/17 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

We're off to an early start today, as Post Times have been moved up so as to have all races complete prior to the kickoff of Super Bowl LI.  So with that let's sprint out of the gate as well, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 5 - Clm $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Swiss Cheese (Morning Line 9-2)

B’s

# 1 Lucky Mark (ML 3-1)
# 6 Pat the Bear (ML 7-2)
# 9 Swiss Wager (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 Second Proposal (ML 7-2)

Swiss Cheese returns off a two month freshening for Trainer Bob Hess Jr, who tends to do well with such.  Lucky Mark has finished in the Exacta four of the five times in his career that he has competed on a fast dirt track.  Pat the Bear took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Swiss Wager could be the speed of the speed in this one.

Second Proposal probably should be charging down the hill rather than sprinting on the dirt; but Second Proposal must be respected because of the huge drop in class.  Perhaps someone will scoop us Second Proposal for the eight grand and move him back to the turf.

RACE 6 - (F) The Las Virgenes (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Champagne Room (ML 5-2)
# 4 Unique Bella (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Mopotism (ML 6-1)
# 5 Miss Southern Miss (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 3 Mistressofthenight (ML 15-1)

Yes, I know Unique Bella is supposed to be this year's Songbird and that she won the Grade 2 Santa Yzez by the length of the stretch and gee, can't I see that 3-5 Morning Line?  Yeah, well, maybe she is all that; maybe she's all that and more; but for now, I'm going to also use the runner here that has two Graded Stakes wins, including one around two turns over this main track against some pretty fair company.  Oh, and Mopotism and Miss Southern Miss also go on the ticket as backups, because in a four horse Graded Stakes race, if you're not using just one, then you might as well use all.

RACE 7 - OC 75k/C - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Hayabusa One (Fr) (ML 7-2)
# 7 Papacoolpapacool (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 5 Prospect Park (ML 4-1)

C's

# 6 Gustnado (ML 6-1)
# 9 Power Foot (ML 6-1)


Hayabusa One (Fr) has turned in two solid performances since coming to North America, and should appreciate the class relief.  Papacoolpapacool and Prospect Park should both improve with the return to the turf course.

Gustnado closed well to win at this distance over this turf course last time out; but there may not be enough pace for Gustnado to chase today.  Power Foot could improve with the drop in class.

RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Lil Awecim (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Vidaks Back (ML 15-1)
# 9 Two Hail Marys (ML 4-1)
# 10 Potente Alba (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Tony Blackjack (ML 6-1)
# 6 Patience Ofa Saint (ML 12-1)
# 8 Candy's Martini (ML 12-1)


Scratch # 11 Edwards Going Left (ML 8-1)

Lil Awecim took the Place at this class level in his debut two starts back.  Vidaks Back showed good early speed in his debut last time out.  Two Hail Marys is a first time starter who has been working well over this main track.

Potente Alba has finished in the Trifecta in each of her three career starts at this class level.  Tony Blackjack is a first time starter who seems to be well bred for today's distance.  Patience Ofa Saint showed good early speed in his debut last time out.  Candy's Martini is a debut runner sired by Marino Marini, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2,4 with 1,7 with 7 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,6,9 with 2,4 with 1,5,7 with 5,7,9,10 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4 with 1,7 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5 with 1,7 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,4 with 6,9 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,4 with 1,7 with 2,6,8 $6.00

Total: $64.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 3:58 EST / 12:58 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

No comments: