The 2017 Fair Meetings in Northern California began Friday (one day later than originally scheduled, thanks to the excessive heat) with the first stop on the tour being the Alameda County Fairgrounds for the Oak Tree at Pleasanton Meet. So that's where my handicapping finds itself Saturday; and while there is a Jackpot Pick Six on the wagering menu, I'm going to give that pool some time to grow, as I set my sights on The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.
RACE 8 - MSW - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Oh Man (Morning Line 9-2)
B's
# 2 Steven Decatur (ML 10-1)
# 6 Sojourn (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Jacks Masterpiece (ML 5-2)
# 5 El Chavo Del Ocho (ML 5-1)
# 8 Cash Limit (ML 6-1)
Oh Man, one of three experienced runners in this juvenile field, took the Place in front of a next out winner while running for a tag in his debut last time out. Steven Decatur goes first time under the tutelage of Trainer Jedd Josephson, who tends to do well with two year olds. Sojourn is a first time starter out of Amber Hills, who has been doing a good job of producing winners (as well as having been a winner herself as a two year old).
Jacks Masterpiece is a debut runner out of Marty's Zee, who has produced two winners from two starters. El Chavo Del Ocho and Cash Limit are both trained by Quinn Howey, and both appear to have been working well for this, the debut for each.
RACE 9 - Clm $3.2k N1Y - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Lucky Mark (ML 2-1)
# 7 Outthink'em (ML 7-2)
B’s
None
C's
# 5 Wise Tale (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 1 Six Votes (ML 9-2)
This contest is for three year olds and upward that have not won a race in 2017, excluding Maiden races, and Claiming, and Starter contests for $2.5k or less.
Lucky Mark has finished in the Exacta four of the six times in his career that he has competed on a Fast dirt track. Outthink'em missed victory by just a head two starts back against open (no restrictions) $3.2k claimers. Wise Tale was victorious the only prior time that he competed over this main track; though it's fair to wonder if Wise Tale is fully recovered from the injury that had him on the shelf for eleven months.
RACE 10 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Fervent Femme (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Russian Radiance (GB) (ML 5-2)
# 2 Chronologic'sghost (ML 6-1)
# 4 Mon Petite (ML 3-1)
# 5 Zip N Bayou (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Chronologic'sghost, the longest shot on the Morning Line in this field, took the Show at this class level last time out, and has finished in the Trifecta six of the eight times in her career that she has competed on a Fast dirt track. So if I can't eliminate her, I see no point in trying to eliminate any of the other four runners in this field. Fervent Femme is the "A" Selection because she looks to be the quickest in this field. Everyone else goes on the big ticket as a "B" Selection, as I'll be making use of the "ALL" button for this contest.
RACE 11 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Tune to Win (ML 3-1)
# 8 Oil Change (ML 10-1)
B's
# 4 Plum Lucky (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Tuscan Warrior (ML 5-1)
# 5 Excessive Gambler (ML 6-1)
Tune to Win ships in from downstate and should appreciate the class relief. Oil Change looks to be quickest in this field. Plum Lucky has finished in the Trifecta three of the four times that he has competed on a Fast dirt track.
Tuscan Warrior could improve with the surface switch. Excessive Gambler, with fourteen prior career starts, has certainly had his chances; but Excessive Gambler has proven to be competitive at this class level, and therefore must be respected.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 3,7 with 3 with 3,8 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,6 with 3,7 with ALL with 3,4,8 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,8 with 3,7 with 3 with 3,8 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 5 with 3 with 3,8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,7 with 3 with 1,5 $2.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:25 EDT / 5:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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