The Grade 2 Santa Ana, a nine furlong romp in the grass for older fillies and mares, is Sunday's featured race at Santa Anita. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Spectator (ML 8-5)
B’s
# 5 She's No Drama (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Phantom Proton (ML 7-2)
# 3 Yuvetsi (ML 3-1)
For me, some of the most difficult contests to handicap are Allowance races featuring a Graded Stakes winner coming off a layoff; and that's what we have here. Spectator, winner of the Grade 2 Sorrento last Summer, is returning from a six month vacation to run against non-winners of two other than Optional Claimers (none of whom are in for a tag). Now it's obvious that Spectator's connections have not brought her back to the track just to win at this level; rather, Spectator is being prepped here with the expectation of returning her to the highest levels of competition.
And that creates the dilemma: just how hard will Spectator be pushed in this contest? And, equally important, how hard will Spectator need to be pushed to be victorious against this field? Because, even without giving her very best, Spectator's talent level is such that she could find herself in the Winner's Circle even without firing on all cylinders.
Ultimately (as you can see above) I decided to go two deep on the big ticket. I think She's No Drama is the likely pacesetter in this contest; so she's the one that Spectator will have to catch to win. Whether or not Spectator is primed to run for victory in this event will show in the stretch when they're in sight of the wire. If Spectator is on her game, then she should run right past She's No Drama as if the latter were a statue. If not, then it falls to Phantom Proton or Yuvesti to try to catch the rabbit.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Quality Line (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Tony Blackjack (ML 4-1)
# 3 Stringent (ML 5-1)
# 4 Tina's Exchange (ML 5-2)
# 8 Hoffenheim (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Elwood J (ML 6-1)
# 6 Royal Opera House (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 7 Grazen Sky (ML 6-1)
Quality Line appears ready to make a nice move forward Sunday in his third start of 2018. Tony Blackjack should benefit from the return to the main track. Stringent and Tina's Exchange appear to be the two quickest here, and if one should shake the other early they may not be caught.
Hoffenheim could be the one running best late. The "C" Selections are everyone else, as this contest looks like a good one for those with the budget large enough to do so to punch the "ALL" button.
RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Ana (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Sassy Little Lila (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Madam Dancealot (Ire) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 8 Midnight Crossing (Ire) (ML 9-2)
Scratch # 2 Fault (ML 3-1), the winner of Saturday's Grade 1 Santa Margarita
With Fault out of the picture, this race looks to come down to either Sassy Little Lila early or Madam Dancealot (Ire) late. In an ideal world, that would mean Madam Dancealot should have drawn the furthest outside post, with Sassy Little Lila getting the rail; but providence deemed that the Post Positions should go the opposite way. Because of that, I think the possibility of Madam Dancealot encountering traffic issues late as she needs to come off the rail is sufficient enough for me to give a slim edge to her rival.
Midnight Crossing (Ire) has been running as a need to lead type of late. But Midnight Crossing has shown the ability to press the pace in the past; and if Midnight Crossing can return to that form Sunday, then she should get first run at the leader ahead of Madam Dancealot, and just might beat that one to the wire.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Champagne Honey (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 I Adore You (ML 20-1)
# 5 Whatyouciswhatuget (ML 6-1)
# 6 Boom Boom Bango (ML 7-2)
# 9 Donut Girl (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Champagne Honey and Whatyouciswhatuget, the only two experienced runners in this field, filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. I Adore You, Boom Boom Bango, and Donut Girl look to be the best of the debut starters.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 5 with 9 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 1,3,4,5,8 with 1,9 with 2,5,6,8,9 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 5 with 9 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,6,7 with 9 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 8 with 8 $0.50
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:15 EDT / 2:15 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment