The rainy weather Arcadia, CA is currently experiencing makes for a nice excuse for me to change things up a bit; so for this weekend I'll be shifting my action upstate to Golden Gate, where the Tapeta surface stands stands up better than real dirt to the inclement weather. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $8k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Exactamente (Morning Line 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Desert Smoke (ML 10-1)
# 6 Mangita (ML 2-1)
This contest is restricted to distaff runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since December 31, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a filly or mare has fewer than four career Wins, she's eligible to run in this race. If an entrant has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come in 2018 (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $6.25k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record, # 3 Desert Smoke (ML 10-1) and # 5 Gold Finga (ML 5-2) are the only two runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Exactamente crossed first under the wire nearly two lengths in front of a next out winner last time out. Trainer Jonathan Wong tends to do well when placing his last out winners.
Desert Smoke likewise crossed first under the wire nearly two lengths in front of a next out winner last time out; but that contest came against lesser company, and for Desert Smoke's prior connections. Mangita could improve off the class drop for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $10k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Foxy Lover (ML 9-5)
# 5 Redneck Girl (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Copy Begone (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Elle Woods Too (ML 10-1)
# 6 Our Favorite City (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Run Sophia Run (ML 9-2)
Foxy Lover and Redneck Girl have been taking turns beating each other to the wire of late, and both appear to be in top form. Run Sophia Run seems to settle for too many minor awards; but Run Sophia Run did hold on to win last time out, and Trainer Samuel Calvario tends to do well with his last out winners.
Copy Begone ships in from the North, and could be tough to beat if she takes to the Tapeta surface. Elle Woods Too has shown the ability to finish in front of the top contenders here in the past. Our Favorite City is on the tickets because everyone else is.
RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Candy's Martini (ML 3-1)
# 6 Red Car Mac (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Confirmed (ML 9-2)
# 3 A New Trend (ML 2-1)
C's
None
Candy's Martini took the Place at this class level last time out. Red Car Mac will be tough to beat if he can return to the form he showed before going on the shelf.
Confirmed graduated last time out in his first try on the synthetic surface; perhaps the Tapeta was the footing that he'd been looking for all along. A New Trend ships in from downstate and is being priced to sell. My instincts tell me that A New Trend probably needs one off the layoff, and besides, this isn't his best distance; but Trainer John Martin wins with too many of these to leave A New Trend off the big ticket.
RACE 9 - ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 Excavation (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 River of Champagne (ML 6-1)
# 8 Castle (ML 9-5)
# 9 Taelyns Prince (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Bountiful Desert (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 6 Monsajem Accrete (ML 20-1)
Excavation, Taelyns Prince, and River of Champagne filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta at this class level last time out. Castle missed victory by a neck at this class level last time out, and Castle's breeding suggests that he should do well with the increase in real estate. Bountiful Desert has either won or been within a neck of the winner at the wire in each of his last seven contests, albeit against lesser company.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3,5 with 1,6 with 7 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,5 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,7,8,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 3,5 with 1,6 with 7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,6 with 1,6 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3,5 with 1,6 with 4 $2.00
Total: $36.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:19 EST / 3:19 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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