7/15/18 Sacramento Late Pick Four - Preview

It's day two of a two day weekend; and, seriously, I have absolutely nothing by way of introduction.  So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Sacramento.

RACE 5 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 El Chavo Del Ocho (ML 9-2)

B's

# 1 Major Implications (ML 2-1)
# 2 Union Rebel (ML 4-1)
# 5 Dancing Harbor (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Cats Surfin (ML 10-1)
# 4 Oh Jerry (ML 8-1)

El Chavo Del Ocho returns after an extended vacation, and goes first time for the barn of Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with both those angles.  Major Implications and Dancing Harbor were less than a length apart at the wire while filling out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta last time out.

Union Rebel took the Place at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 6 - Clm $3.2k N2Y - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Jens de Ville (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 He's a Tiger (ML 5-2)

# 7 Mesa Jones (ML 4-1)

C's

# 5 Royal Alexei (ML 9-2)

This contest is open to runners three years old and upward which have not won two races in 2018.  It's worth noting that in this field of seven, three of the runners are racing above their conditions.  # 2 On Fire (ML 8-1); # 3 Stocked (ML 6-1); and # 4 Yes I’m Wild (ML 10-1) have won zero races in 2018; meaning that they’re eligible to compete in races for horses which have not won any races in 2018 (for example, Clm $3.2k N1Y).  In fact, Stocked has only one Win in his career, meaning that he’s still eligible to compete in races with a N2L (non-winners of two lifetime) condition.

Now, sometimes things of this nature (having horses race above their conditions) are done by trainers as a favor to the racing secretary in order to get the race to go.  After all, if you take these three runners out of this contest you’re left with a field of four before scratches; which almost certainly means that the race would be dropped from the card.  And, of course, racing above their conditions does not mean that none of those three horses can win.  After all, lightweights have been known to occasionally defeat middleweights.  It’s just that there is rarely a compelling reason to take on a battle where the odds are stacked against you in this manner.

I mention all this to point out one of the reason why some trainers seem to visit the Winner’s Circle so much more frequently than others.  Yes, having better horses is the key component in that equation; but a lot of that is also that trainers with high Winning Percentages tend to put their runners in spots where they have a legitimate chance to compete, rather than needlessly forcing them to swim in the deep end of the pool.

Jens de Ville ran well over the dirt at Pleasanton while winning last time out.  He's a Tiger took the Place at this class level last time out.  Mesa Jones defeated open claimers with a more expensive price tag on their heads two starts back, albeit on the synthetic main track at Golden Gate.  Royal Alexei goes first off the claim for Trainer Quinn Howey, who tends to do well with such.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Shylock Eddie (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Seaside Song (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Felony One (ML 4-1)

# 5 Amers (ML 7-2)

Shylock Eddie was victorious at this class level last time out.  Seaside Song could move up with the class drop.  Felony One finished in the Trifecta in four of her five prior dirt starts.  Amers could improve going third off the layoff.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $8k - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 She's Over the Top (ML 9-2)

# 7 Lucky Outcome (ML 2-1)

B's

# 4 Marina Rose (ML 8-1)

# 5 Dayjur Bold (ML 20-1)

# 8 Quadrillionaire (ML 3-1)
# 9 Check Six (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Lostmysister (ML 15-1)

# 2 American Sheriff (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 6 Mexicat (ML 20-1)

She's Over the Top took the Place at this class level last time out.  Lucky Outcome showed good early speed against classier foes down at Santa Anita last time out.  Marina Rose could move up with the class drop.

Dayjur Bold could improve going third off the layoff.  Quadrillionaire could improve with the surface switch.  Check Six is a first time starter in a field where the experienced runners haven't shown a whole lot.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 6 with 6 with 3,7 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6 with 1,6,7 with 1,6 with 3,4,5,7,8,9 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 6 with 6 with 3,7 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 6 with 3,7 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 6 with 3,5 with 3,7 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 6 with 6 with 1,2 $1.00

Total: $80.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo