Saturday, July 28, 2018

7/28/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 1 Bing Crosby is Saturday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - [S] The California Dreamin' $150k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Pee Wee Reese (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 3 Ashleyluvssugar (ML 9-2)
# 8 B Squared (ML 8-1)
# 9 Well Developed (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 What a View (ML 5-1)
# 2 Grecian Fire (ML 8-1)
# 7 Fly to Mars (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 10 Soi Phet (ML 12-1)

Pee Wee Reese looks to be in top form, and if I was more courageous I would make the five year old horse a single here.  But I just couldn't pull the trigger on going solo in the opening turf contest; so onto the big ticket go B Squared, Well Developed, and Ashleyluvssugar, the runners who filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta  in the Crystal Water Stakes back in May at Santa Anita.

What a View got to the line a length in front of Pee Wee Reese in the 2017 running of the Crystal Water Stakes.  Grecian Fire could be vying with Ashleyluvssugar for the distinction of which entrant will be running best late Saturday.  Fly to Mars ran well enough in his last start for Trainer Peter Miller to suggest that he could handle the class rise here.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Broome (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 6 Topaz Time (ML 5-1)
# 7 Swallows Inn Gal (ML 8-1)

# 9 Neon Gypsy (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 10 Sing a Solo (ML 15-1)

Broome, trained by Peter Miller, drops in class and should benefit from the return to one turn racing.  Topaz Time could move up with the return to a Fast dirt track.  Swallows Inn Gal could move up with the cutback in distance.  Neon Gypsy is getting some significant class relief; but dirt may not be Neon Gypsy's preferred surface.

RACE 9 - The Bing Crosby (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Roy H (ML 2-1)
# 4 American Anthem (ML 5-2)

B's

# 5 Ransom the Moon (ML 6-1)
# 8 St. Joe Bay (ML 8-1)
# 9 Edwards Going Left (ML 10-1)
# 11 Stallwalkin' Dude (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 American Pastime (ML 15-1)

Roy H, trained by Peter Miller, returns to states after taking show in the Dubai Golden Shaheen back in March.  American Anthem, trained by Bob Baffert, crossed under the wire first in the Grade 2 San Carlos last time out, and could benefit from the reduction in real estate.

Ransom the Moon won last year's running of this contest by over a length in front of Roy H.  St. Joe Bay was just a head behind American Anthem at the line in the San Carlos last time out.  Edwards Going Left took the Show in the Grade 1 Triple Bend last time out.

Stallwalkin' Dude could improve going third off the layoff.  American Pastime had a sharp workout over this main track Sunday the 22nd.

RACE 10 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Tariq (ML 5-2)
# 14 Oracle of Omaha (ML 4-1)

B's

# 3 More Ice (ML 5-1)
# 7 Ocean Fury (ML 7-2)
# 8 Forloveofcountry (ML 9-2)
# 11 King of Speed (ML 20-1)

C's

# 2 Biz Nasty (ML 15-1)
# 13 Saltarin (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 6 An American Jet (ML 30-1) and # 9 Tanker (ML 10-1)

Tariq took the Place at this class level in his debut last time out, and could improve with the surface switch.  Oracle of Omaha missed graduation by just a head in his debut last time out.

More Ice took the Show behind Tariq last time out.  Ocean Fury could improve with a cleaner trip this go 'round.  Forloveofcountry took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, and could move up with the shift to the lawn.

King of Speed could improve with the surface switch.  Biz Nasty is a first time starter who seems well bred for the turf.  Saltarin is trained by Victor Garcia, whose runners tend to show significant improvement in their second career start.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 3,4 with 12,14 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,8,9 with 3 with 3,4,5,8,9,11 with 3,7,8,11,12,14 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,7 with 3 with 3,4 with 12,14 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 6,7,9 with 3,4 with 12,14 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 2 with 12,14 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 3,4 with 2,13 $2.00

Total: $91.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:20 EDT / 5:20 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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