7/29/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

Three year old California bred fillies going as far you can on the main track while making just one turn; that's Sunday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Parsimony (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 1 Roadster (ML 5-2)
# 3 View Magic (ML 20-1)
# 10 Jefe (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Thin Line (ML 10-1)
# 4 Seven Oxen (ML 12-1)
# 5 Of Good Report (ML 20-1)
# 6 Gunmetal Gray (ML 5-1)
# 7 Savagery (ML 8-1)
# 8 Istanbul (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Runningwscissors (ML 20-1) and # 12 Easy Keeper (ML 20-1)

Parsimony took the Place at this class level last time out, with Jefe taking the Show behind him.  Parsimony has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two career starts; not exactly the best way to begin a career; but the talent is clearly there, and Parsimony looks to be clearly best here.

Roadster is a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert, who tends to do well with such.  View Magic and Gunmetal Gray are both trained by Jerry Hollendorfer; and while I could end up looking very foolish after this race is run, I think View Magic, with the much higher Morning Line Odds, will run much better than his stablemate on Sunday; so Gunmetal Gray joins everyone else in the backup "C" Selection pile.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Cheekaboo (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 3 Painting Corners (ML 6-1)
# 8 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 9 Causeway Carolyn (ML 12-1)

C's

# 4 Indian Mantuana (ML 6-1)
# 7 Quebec (ML 5-1)

# 11 Miss Sugars (GB) (ML 6-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 12 Beautiful Becca (ML 10-1); # 13 Pyscho Sister (ML 15-1); and # 14 Zaffinah (Ire) (ML 8-1)

Cheekaboo missed victory by just a neck at this class level last time out, and Cheekaboo has run well in the past over this turf course.  Painting Corners could improve with the stretch out.  The Tulip (Ire) has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last three starts.  Causeway Carolyn is two-for-twenty-six lifetime, but one-for-three over this turf course; so maybe Causeway Carolyn will exceed expectations today.

Indian Mantuana took the Show behind The Tulip last time out.  Quebec projects to be an early pace presence.  Miss Sugars (GB) could improve with the stretch out.

RACE 8 - (F) [S] The Fleet Treat $150k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Spiced Perfection (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Loving Lynda (ML 4-1)

# 2 One Fast Broad (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Kimberlea (ML 5-1)

# 5 Impecunious (ML 15-1)

# 6 Show It N Moe It (ML 5-1)

# 7 Just Grazed Me (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 8 Donut Girl

Loving Lynda, Spiced Perfection, and One Fast Broad filled out the Trifecta in the Melair last time out.  I gave the edge to Spiced Perfection in today's contest because I think she'll best handle the reduction in real estate.

If this contest was for either six or six and and a half furlongs, I would probably have made Show It N Moe It my "A" Selection.  But it seems that each time Show It N Moe It has had to go seven furlongs in the past she has thrown in a sub-par effort.  So while it may end up costing me today, I'll going to use Show It N Moe It as a backup "C" Selection, along with the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Drizzy (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 2 Raven Creek (ML 9-2)

# 4 Save Ground (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Six Point Rack (ML 8-1)

# 10 Senator Robert (ML 8-1)
# 11 Unpossible (ML 8-1)
# 12 California Journey (ML 8-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 El Tovar (ML 10-1)

Drizzy closed well charging down the Santa Anita hill to take the Place at this approximate class level last time out.  Raven Creek and Saved Ground filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.

Six Point Race has run well over this turf course in the past.  Senator Robert could improve with the move back to the lawn.  Unpossible could move up with a return to the flats.  California Journey projects to be an early pace presence.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 6 with 4 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,9,10 with 3,6,8,9 with 1,2,4 with 2,4,9 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,6,7,8 with 6 with 4 with 9 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 4,7,11 with 4 with 9 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 9 with 6 with 3,5,6,7 with 9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 6 with 4 with 1,10,11,12 $2.00

Total: $81.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:33 EDT / 4:33 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo