Saturday, July 21, 2018

7/21/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

Opening weekend at Del Mar!  Sing it, Bing!




The good people at Del Mar have greatly expanded their wagering menu this Summer.  Among the changes is a doubling of the number of Pick Fours on the card, which is why you'll notice that there is a qualifier in the headline of today's post.  Saturday's card also features a pair of Graded Stakes, both of which are among the final four races to be run.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - The San Diego (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Harlan Punch (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 1 Catalina Cruiser (ML 8-1)
# 2 Dr. Dorr (ML 5-1)

C's

# 4 Two Thirty Five (ML 6-1)
# 8 El Huerfano (ML 20-1)
# 9 Dabster (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 3 Sharp Samurai (ML 6-1); # 5 Curlin Rules (ML 20-1); # 6 Prince of Arabia (ML 20-1); # 7 Accelerate (ML 8-5)

To say that the entire complexion of this race changed with the scratch of Accelerate would be the understatement of the Summer.

Harlan Punch ships in from the east for Trainer David Jacobson after taking the Grade 3 Philip H Islen at Monmouth Park last time out.  Catalina Cruiser, stablemate of Accelerate for Trainer John Sadler, is undefeated in two career starts and could move up with the stretch out in distance.

Dr. Dorr, trained by Bob Baffert, took the Place in the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita behind Accelerate two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) The San Clemente (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 14 Ollie's Candy (ML 6-1)

B's

# 8 Animosity (ML 6-1)
# 10 War Heroine (ML 6-1)
# 13 Ms Peintour (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Rockin Ready (ML 8-1)
# 2 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 9-2)
# 3 Flammetta (ML 12-1)

# 4 Miss Sienna (GB) (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 7 Streak of Luck (ML 30-1)

Ollie's Candy, undefeated in three career starts (two on the plastic, one on real dirt) appears to have the breeding to hold her form with the move to the lawn.  Animosity and Ms Peintour filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta in the Grade 2 Honeymoon last time out.  War Heroine, trained by Peter Miller, showed very good form last time out in winning a second level Optional Claimer by daylight while charging down the Santa Anita hill.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Synthesis (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Dueling (ML 20-1)
# 10 Rowayton (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Pirate's Punch (ML 12-1)
# 3 Frosted Grace (ML 12-1)
# 8 Magnificent McCool (ML 3-1)
# 9 Truck Salesman (ML 10-1)


Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 11 Istanbul (ML 20-1) and # 12 Easy Keeper (ML 20-1)

These are juveniles, with only two experienced runners (# 2 Pirate's Punch and # 7 Synthesis) in the field.

Synthesis has taken the Show at this class level in each of his two career starts.  Dueling and Rowayton are both trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, and both have been working well for their respective debuts.

Pirate's Punch didn't show much in his first try last time out; but the experience may help him improve this go round.  Frosted Grace had a nice work over this main track Monday.  Magnificent McCool and Truck Salesman are both trained by Doug O'Neill, who began this meet about as hot as any trainer possibly could.

RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Camino Song (Ire) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 6 Resolu (ML 12-1)
# 9 Innocent (ML 9-2)
# 11 Party Dancer (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Dearborn (ML 8-1)
# 4 Ten Count Out (ML 8-1)
# 7 Amuse (ML 7-2)

# 10 Take a Leap (ML 8-1)

Camino Song (Ire) has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last two turf starts.  Resolu closed well in her debut two starts back.  Innocent took the Place at this class level at Churchill Downs last time out, and took the Show at Keeneland in her turf start prior to that.  Party Dancer could improve off the freshening.

Dearborn ships in from the east, and could improve with the change in coasts.  Ten Count Out could improve going second off the year long layoff.  Amuse is a first time starter for Trainer Richard Mandella, and is well bred for the grass.  Take a Leap closed well enough in her debut last time out to suggest that she could handle the class rise.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 14 with 7 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,10 with 8,10,13,14 with 4,7,10 with 6,8,9,11 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 14 with 7 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,2,3,4 with 7 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 14 with 2,3,8,9 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 14 with 7 with 1,4,7,10 $2.00

Total: $80.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:00 EDT / 5:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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