Saturday, August 4, 2018

8/4/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

Fillies and Mares going around two turns on the grass; that's Saturday's featured race in Southern California; specifically, the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Dark Prince (Morning Line 7-2)
# 12 Babael (ML 5-2)

B's

# 8 Neptune's Storm (ML 6-1)
# 9 Lacazette (ML 20-1)

C's

# 2 Stubbins (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sigalert (ML 9-2)
# 7 Easy Shot (ML 4-1)


Scratch # 1 Absolute Control (ML 20-1).  Bring in # 12 Babael (ML 5-2) off the Also Eligible list to take his place.  Take out the other two Also Eligibles, # 11 Flying Scotsman (ML 20-1) and # 13 Easy Keeper (ML 20-1), as they get to hang out in the barn and watch on TV.

These are all two year old juveniles; and only one, the Bob Baffert trained Dark Prince, has any prior racing experience.  I expect Dark Prince to improve upon his initial effort, where he showed some early quickness before fading.

Babael is sired by Algorithma, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  Babel is out of Just Joking, who has produced three winners from three starters.

Neptune's Storm had a sharp gate work on Sunday the 29th, over this main track.  Lacazette is a full brother to multiple Graded Stakes winner Vicar's in Trouble.

Stubbins is out of Morning Line, who has produced three winners from five starters, including Listed Stakes winner Golden Rifle.  Sigalert and Easy Shot have both been working well over this main track.

RACE 8 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Grass

A’s

# 6 Storm the Hill (ML 9-2)

B's

# 5 Tisbutadream (ML 20-1)
# 8 Sophie P (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Ancient Secret (ML 8-1)
# 11 Cambodia (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 2 Sassy Little Lila (ML 15-1)
# 3 Midnight Crossing (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 4 Hallie Belle (ML 10-1)
# 7 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 8-1)
# 12 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 10 Fahan Mura (ML 5-1)

Storm the Hill and Ancient Secret filled out the Exacta in the Grade 3 Wilshire at Santa Anita last time out.  Tisbutadream makes her North American debut after showing good early speed in several contests in Great Britain;  such tend to do well in North America.

Sophie P (GB) won the Grade 1 Gamely two starts back.  Cambodia is the defending champ, having won the 2017 running of this event.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Street Vision (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 5 All Out Blitz (ML 5-1)
# 6 Solid Wager (ML 6-1)
# 8 Grazen Sky (ML 12-1)
# 12 Make It a Triple (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Tatters to Riches (ML 7-2)
# 7 Shades of Victory (ML 20-1)
# 9 Flagstaff (ML 9-2)
# 10 Cats Blame (ML 12-1)


Street Vision has run well over this main track in the past, and is two-for-two since being claimed by Trainer David Jacobson.  All Out Blitz is getting some class relief, and has been working well for his return from holiday.  Solid Wager and Make It a Triple filled out the Exacta at this class level at Santa Anita back in June.  Grazen Sky could move up with the return to one turn racing.

Tatters to Riches ran well last year while winning his debut over this main track.  Shades of Victory could improve with the increased distance.  Flagstaff has run well in each of his two career starts.  Cats Blame goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, whose runners have been doing well this meet.

RACE 10 - Md $62.5k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Zipman (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Aussie Fox (ML 8-1)
# 5 Dignitaire (ML 5-1)
# 6 Spirit Mission (ML 8-1)
# 7 Katie's Cowboy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Irish Spring (ML 8-1)

# 9 Starting Bloc (ML 8-1)

Zipman, trained by Bob Baffert, took the Place behind a next out winner the only prior time that he ran with a price tag on his head.  Aussie Fox returns from an extended leave and drops in for a tag; not exactly a vote of confidence from his connections; but Aussie Fox has been working well for his return.  Dignitaire was much improved last time out, his first time competing in the Maiden Claiming ranks.

Spirit Mission ships in from the East and tries the turf for the first time; his breeding suggests that he'll be able to handle the surface switch.  Katie's Cowboy, Irish Spring, and Starting Bloc are three more taking the plunge from MSW to Maiden Claiming.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,12 with 6 with 4 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,8,9,12 with 5,6,8,9,11 with 4,5,6,8,12 with 2 $50.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,6,7 with 6 with 4 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3,12 with 1,2,3,4,7,12 with 4 with 2 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,12 with 6 with 1,7,9,10 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,12 with 6 with 4 with 4,5,6,7,8,9 $6.00

Total: $69.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:03 EDT / 5:03 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

No comments: