Fillies and mares dominate the bottom portion of Sunday's thoroughbred card in Southern California, as three quarters of the program's final four races will be limited to those on the distaff side. So with that as introduction let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dis Smart Cat (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 5 Tyfosha (ML 3-1)
# 7 Hot Autumn (ML 5-1)
# 8 Conquest Flatterme (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Dutch Mama (ML 20-1)
# 3 Summer's Indy (ML 4-1)
# 4 Demigoddess (ML 20-1)
# 6 Spring Lily (ML 4-1)
Dis Smart Cat and Conquest Flatterme filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Tyfosha probably needs a race; but if she's ready to roll, then Tyfosha is certainly talented enough to defeat this field. Hot Autumn took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Tiny Tina (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Chica La Habana (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Mischievous Song (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Bornonvalentineday (ML 4-1)
# 3 Drift Away (ML 6-1)
# 6 Bunny Yogurt (ML 4-1)
Tiny Tina fits well here are class, and should be in good position early. Chica La Habana (Ire) could benefit from the class relief. Mischievous Song is three-for seven lifetime on dirt, and looks like a better fit for Race 6 above; but Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well when moving his runners from turf to dirt, and if Mischievous Song's form holds with the surface switch, then she could win today.
Bornonvalentineday could benefit from the class drop. Drift Away is moving way up in class; but Trainer Andrew Lerner has been done well of late when placing his last out winners. Bunny Yogurt could improve with the barn change.
RACE 8 - (F) The Sorrento (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Stirred (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Madison's Quarters (ML 20-1)
# 2 Dragic (ML 8-1)
# 3 Bellafina (ML 7-2)
# 4 Lady Lucy (ML 8-1)
# 5 Dichotomy (ML 12-1)
# 6 Summerland (ML 12-1)
# 8 Reflect (ML 5-1)
# 9 Boujie Girl (ML 6-1)
# 10 Del Mar May (ML 9-2)
C's
None
I have no idea who's going to win this race; so I'm just going to buy it, punch the "ALL" button, and move on. These are juvenile fillies with either one or two career starts, and quite frankly I can't point to any one or pair or trio and in this field and call them standouts. Perhaps once this race is run it'll be clear which one is the best; but, for now, this will be a contest that I'm going to watch and root for a price.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Twisted Road (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Catch Fire (ML 8-1)
# 2 Supreme Giant (ML 6-1)
# 5 Odyssey Explorer (ML 8-1)
# 7 Working (ML 7-2)
# 12 Brag Dude (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Grand Minister (ML 12-1); but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles, # 13 The Chadinator (No Line) and # 14 Spend It (NL), as they get to chill in the barn.
Twisted Road has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his five prior career starts. If he disappoints again on Sunday, then the big ticket is toast, as I've decided to make him my single in this play.
Catch Fire is making his second career start for Trainer David Hofmans, who tends to do well with such. Supreme Giant just missed victory last time out at this class level by a head; but I'm not too keen on the "twenty-sixth time's the charm" angle.
Odyssey Explorer is another strong contender here who I feel has had enough chances. Working has twice taken the Show at this class level; but working seems to have stamina issues. Brag Dude was a well beaten third behind Supreme Giant last time out; perhaps Brag Dude will benefit from the cutback in distance.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 7 with 11 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,5,7,8 with 2,4,5 with ALL with 11 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6 with 4 with 7 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,3,6 with 7 with 11 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 7 with 1,2,5,7,12 $2.50
Total: $67.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:33 EDT / 4:33 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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