8/2/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Big doings on the East Coast, as Triple Crown winner American Pharoah returns to competition in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.  As for us, we'll be turning our attention to the West, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Cervaro (Morning Line 3-1)

B’s

# 2 Silver Torch (ML 8-1)
# 4 All Run (ML 6-1)
# 9 I'll Wrap It Up (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Apostle Paul (ML 12-1)
# 11 Commander King (ML 6-1)

# 7 Lambo Luxx (No Line) is a program scratch.   That allows Commander King to draw in off the Also Eligible List; but # 12 Derby Glass (ML 5-1) and # 13 Mister Blue (ML 8-1) don't draw in, and get to hang out in the barn.

Note for future reference that this one is for horses that have never won two races (N2L), as that information won't be found in future DRF Past Performances (at least not until they finally fix that flaw).

Cervaro goes first off the claim for Trainer Mike Puype, who wins with approximately 35% of such.  Silver Torch closed well two starts back while taking the Show at this class level.

I'll Wrap It Up and All Run took the Place and Show, respectively, their last time out, charging down the Santa Anita hill at this class level.  Apostle Paul and Commander King finished a head apart while filling out the Superfecta last time out at this class level.

RACE 7 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Semper Fortis (ML 4-1)
# 9 Who's Out (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Blameitonthelaw (ML 5-2)

C's

# 7 Global Event (ML 7-2)

# 1 Street Rules (ML 12-1) has been scratched.

This one's for juveniles, with all but one of the entrants (# 4 Phantom Heat (ML 20-1)) being first time starters.

Semper Fortis is sired by Distorted Humor; Who's Out is sired by Tale of Ekati; the get of both those sires do quite well in their first attempts.  

Blameitonthelaw is trained by John Sadler, who wins a little over twenty percent of the time that he sends out a debut runner.  Blameitonthelaw is sired by Blame, whose progeny win about eighteen percent of the time at first asking.  The concern with Blameitonthelaw is distance, as he may need more than five and a half furlongs to show his best stuff.

Global Event is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia; the Baffert / Garcia combo scored with first time starter One Last Shot in yesterday's Race 7 here at Del Mar at odds of 5-1.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Artistic Charm (GB) (ML 5-2)
# 4 Royal Temptress (Ire) (ML 3-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 6 Mangita (ML 12-1)

# 7 One More (ML 6-1)

# 5 All Star Bub (ML 12-1) has been scratched.

Artistic Charm (GB) steps up in class after defeating OC N1X company on the turf by daylight last time out.  Artistic Charm does her best running on the front end, so the rail draw should suit her well.

Royal Temptress has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last two races.  Expect Royal Temptress to be running well late.

Mangita turned in a fine effort two starts back and could improve off that effort if she can avoid an early pace due.  One More has finished in the money each of the last two times that she competed at this class level.

RACE 9 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 With the Breeze (ML 6-1)

# 5 Flat Gone (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 8 Cowtownmary (ML 15-1)

# 12 Go First (ML 5-1)

C's

None

# 13 Dive Down (ML 10-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

With the Breeze has had only one prior race on a fast dirt track.  That race went around two turns; and despite fading badly in the stretch, With the Breeze earned a Beyer Speed Figure in that contest that tops the career best for most of his opponents in this field.  A repeat of that effort could land With the Breeze in the Winner's Circle today.

Flat Gone took the Place against more expensive last time out, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.  Cowtownmary could be the quickest out of what looks to be a pretty paceless group.  Go First looks like he's positioned to move forward off his last race.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 8,9 with 1,4 with 3,5 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,9 with 3,8,9 with 1,4 with 3,5,8,12 $48.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 1,11 with 8,9 with 1,4 with 3,5 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 7 with 1,4 with 3,5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 8,9 with 6,7 with 3,5 $4.00

Total: $70.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:40 EDT / 4:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo