8/8/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Big doings on the East Coast today, as they're running The Whitney at Saratoga.  Meanwhile Del Mar is offering a pair of Graded Stakes on its card: The Best Pal for two year olds, which will be Race 5, and The John C Mabee, for fillies and mares on the grass.  The latter is carded for Race 8, which makes it a part of the Pick Four that we'll be chasing at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Power of Ten (Morning Line 6-1)
# 7 Discatsonthesquare (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 8 Fast and Foxy (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Frisco Fog (ML 12-1)

# 5 Pearl de Vere (ML 3-1)

# 9 Black Betsy (ML 6-1)

Power of Ten's last eleven races have been at the OC 62k/N2X level, in which she finished in the money six times, including one win.  Power of Ten now drops back down to the N1X level and gets a a change in rider, the combination of which could get her to the Winner's Circle today.

Discatsonthesquare has finished in the money at this class level in each of her last two races.  Fast and Foxy and Frisco Fog look to be the primary speed in this contest.  Black Betsy got burnt in a speed duel last time out; perhaps new rider Tyler Baze will be able to get her to sit back and wait.

Pearl de Vere earned a pair of Beyer Speed Figures in her last two races that, if either were to be repeated, could see her crossing the wire first today.  But both those Beyers were earned by charging down the hill at Santa Anita; Pearl de Vere's more recent dirt form has been much less impressive.

RACE 8 - (F) The John C Mabee (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Emotional Kitten (ML 4-1)

# 3 Fanticola (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Stormy Lucy (ML 4-1)

# 5 Personal Diary (ML 15-1)

# 6 Gusto Dolce (Uru) (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

It looks like this one boils down to either Fanticola early or Emotional Kitten late.  These two strike me as the best two in this field; now it's just a matter of which performs better at their preferred running style.

Stormy Lucy could be the one catching Fanticola late if Emotional Kitten fails to fire.  Personal Diary ran the best race of her life almost one year ago today when she won the Del Mar Oaks in her only prior contest on this turf course.  Perhaps the return to this setting will inspire Personal Diary to excel today.

RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs

A’s

# 7 Nextdoorneighbor (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 War Academy (ML 8-1)

# 6 Sacred Ovation (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Real Heat (ML 12-1)

# 9 Expo and Fig (ML 4-1)

Nextdoorneighbor is 5-1-1 in the seven contests that he's run since being claimed by Trainer Peter Miller.  War Academy takes a huge drop down the class ladder and could be speed on the rail.  If Sacred Ovation can return to the form that he showed in his two races prior to his most recent, then he could be getting his picture taken today.  

Real Heat earned a Beyer Speed Figure two starts back that could get the job done today if repeated.  However, Real Heat has earned only one Beyer within a dozen points of that number in his most recent twelve starts.  Expo and Fig has won each of his last two races convincingly, albeit against much cheaper competition.

RACE 10 - (F) Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Barbs Angel (ML 2-1)

B's

# 9 Unwarrented (ML 20-1)

# 12 Chicago Angel (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 My Moment Too (ML 20-1)

# 5 Lady Juliet (ML 8-1)

# 7 Miss Green Pond (ML 10-1)

# 13 Felicity Doll (ML 20-1) and # 14 Stormys' Blazer (ML 20-1) do not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

Barbs Angel took the Place last time against more expensive, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process.  Unwarrented is a home bred debut runner who looks to be well meant.  Chicago Angel has finished in the money at this class level in each of her last four races, and seeks to prove that the fourteenth time is the charm.

My Moment Too took the Show at this level two starts back, albeit some sixteen months ago.  Lady Juliet drops in for the lowest price tag of her career.  Miss Green Pond took the Show at this class level last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6,7 with 2,3 with 7 with 2 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,7,8 with 2,3 with 1,6,7 with 2,9,12 $27.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 3,5,9 with 2,3 with 7 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 4,5 with 7 with 2 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 2,3 with 2,9 with 2 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 2,3 with 7 with 3,5,7 $6.00

Total: $46.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo