It's Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar Saturday, with the featured event being one of three Graded Stakes on the card. We'll be looking closely at two of those contests, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 8 - The Del Mar Handicap (Grade 2) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Ashleyluvssugar (Morning Line 3-1)
# 3 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 20-1)
B's
# 2 Ganesh (Brz) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Big John B (ML 5-2)
# 5 Little Jerry (ML 12-1)
C's
# 6 Power Ped (ML 12-1)
# 8 Finnegans Wake (ML 7-2) has been scratched.
Ashleyluvssugar was simply out-classed last time out in the Grade 1 United Nations. The scratch of Finnegans Wake puts today's contest back on a competitive level that Ashlevlussugar should handle well.
Flamboyant (Fr) is much improved since the removal of the blinkers and the removal of, well, since he was gelded back in late April. Flamboyant has shown a closing kick that should appreciate the stretch out in distance today. I don't know if Flamboyant can win at this level, but I am confident that he will outrun his Morning Line odds.
Ganesh (Brz) enters this contest with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, earned while taking the Place behind Ashleyluvssugar in the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham. Big John B is the defending champ, having won this contest last year, earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure in the process that he has yet to equal or surpass.
Little Jerry could be all alone on the lead for a significant portion of this contest, meaning that Little Jerry is more likely to steal this one on the front end than his Morning Line odds would suggest. Power Ped had some trouble early last time out; expect him to be more forwardly placed in the opening stages today.
RACE 9 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Red Vine (ML 6-1)
# 7 Catch a Flight (Arg) (ML 9-2)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Bayern (ML 6-1)
# 8 Hoppertunity (ML 5-1)
Red Vine ships in from the East for Trainer Christophe Clement having earned Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races that are greater than those earned by any of the other entrants in this field in their respective last two races. Catch a Flight (Arg) has won three of his last four contests, all Graded Stakes events.
Bayern and Hoppertunity are the uncoupled entry of Trainer Bob Baffert. Bayern's form is easy to decipher: if he can get comfortable on the lead early, then he can win. Hoppertunity switches back to Jockey Martin Garcia, who was on board for each of Hopperturnity's last two victories.
You'll notice that # 9 Beholder (ML 5-2) is not on any of our tickets. I think Beholder is an exceptional horse; but I don't think she's fast enough to keep pace with this field. So if Beholder wins, then we lose.
RACE 10 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 8 Roy H (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Labour (Arg) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 6 Native Treasure (ML 12-1)
# 11 Bluegrass Bronco (ML 6-1) and # 12 Crimson Giant (ML 20-1) do not draw in off the Also Eligible List and get the afternoon off.
Roy H was squeezed at the start last time out, but was able to close well enough to just miss winning at this class level, taking the Place a half length in front of Labour (Arg). While these two seem to be relatively equal in strength, if Roy H can get a clean break today, then he will be greatly advantaged, as this field does not contain the preponderance of early speed that one is used to seeing in turf sprints.
Native Treasure should improve with the return to turf. Based on his Tomlinson Rating, Native Treasure should also appreciate the turnback in distance.
RACE 11 - Clm $32k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Unfettered (ML 12-1)
# 7 Buckleberry Grey (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 10 Kafister (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Oligarch (ML 6-1)
# 8 Second Proposal (ML 9-2)
Toss out his contests against Quarter Horses, and Unfettered has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last three races that are superior to Beyer par for this class level. While I will be very much surprised if Unfettered goes to Post at odds even half that of his Morning Line, he should still be a very nice price.
Buckleberry Grey took the Place against more expensive at today's distance last time out. Kafister took the Show in that same contest.
Oligarch won at this class level two starts back, albeit for different connections. Second Proposal jumps up a few rungs on the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned last time out fits well with the contenders in this field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,3 with 5,7 with 8 with 2,7 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5 with 5,7 with 7,8 with 2,7,10 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5,7 with 8 with 2,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 3,8 with 8 with 2,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 5,7 with 6 with 2,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 5,7 with 8 with 3,8 $4.00
Total: $52.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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