Saturday, August 29, 2015

8/29/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Yest, it's true: there really are horse races in the United States today outside of Saratoga.  While we wish all the best to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, as well as the best of luck to all those playing the Saratoga card, we'll be focusing our attention on the opposite coast, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Matter of Luck (Morning Line 9-2)
# 12 Gold Journey (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 10 Little But Lucky (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Shallot (ML 5-1)
# 5 Sweet Mz. Poppet (ML 6-1)
# 7 Rock N Bunny (ML 15-1)

# 4 Lady Dash (ML 20-1) is a program scratch; so bring in # 13 Beyond Lucky (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible List; but let # 14 Belle Evon (ML 5-1) stay in the barn.

Matter of Luck tries winners for the first time after winning by daylight last time out while earning the best dirt last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  Gold Journey took the Place at this class level last time out.  Little But Lucky's form looks much better if you toss out her two turf starts.

Shallot has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, though it was earned while sprinting on the grass.  Shallot showed good early speed while winning two starts back, and Trainer Ed Freeman does quite well when moving his runners from turf to dirt.

Sweet Mz. Poppet showed good early speed against more expensive stock last time out.  Rock N Bunny crossed the wire first at this class level last time out, but had her number taken down due to an inability to run in a straight line.

RACE 8 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Semper Fortis (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Oppidum (ML 12-1)

C's

# 6 Who's Out (ML 9-2)

# 1 Justin Squared (ML 3-1) and # 5 Go Ghetto (ML 12-1) are program scratches.

Semper Fortis took the Place in his debut last time out at this class level.  The concern with Semper Fortis is that runners trained by Doug O'Neill often don't move forward in their second career starts.

Oppidum, trained by Bob Baffert, was sired by Speightstown, whose progeny tend to do rather well at first asking.  Who's Out, who debuted in the same contest as Semper Fortis, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, whose runners often improve off their initial efforts in their second career tries.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 80k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Holograeme (ML 3-1)
# 6 Pammy Whammy (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Foolish Ways (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 3 Del Mar Ann (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Miss Boom Boom (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sweet (ML 4-1)

Pammy Whammy and Holograeme took the Place and the Show, respectively, their last time out at this class level.  Foolish Ways (Ire) has yet to finish out of the money on grass since adding the blinkers.  Del Mar Ann had to put a price tag on her head in order to graduate, but she did close exceptionally well in that contest (her first try on grass) while winning by daylight.

Miss Boom Boom took the Place against stakes company last time out, a marked improvement over her previous effort, which saw her finish out of the money at this class level.  Sweet took the Place at this class level last time out, despite losing ground on the winner in the final furlong.

RACE 10 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Moonie (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Soul Flyer (ML 7-2)
# 12 Parasail (ML 5-1)

C's

# 5 Lacey's Rainbow (ML 6-1)
# 13 Bella Sierra (ML 5-1)

# 11 West Mid (ML 20-1) is a program scratch; so bring in Bella Sierra off the Also Eligible List.

Moonie took the Place at this class level two starts back, which was also Moonie's most recent start on dirt and with blinkers on.

Soul Flyer has finished in the money in all three of her career starts, all at this class level.  Parasail, a first time starter, has been firing bullets in her morning workouts over this main track.  Lacey's Rainbow closed well in her debut last time out.  Bella Sierra missed by less than two lengths when she competed at this class level two starts back.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6,12 with 4 with 4,6 with 10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,10,12 with 4,7 with 2,3,4,6 with 7,10,12 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,7 with 4 with 4,6 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6,12 with 6 with 4,6 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,12 with 4 with 1,5 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,12 with 4 with 4,6 with 5,13 $4.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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