Saturday, December 12, 2015

12/12/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the middle weekend of the Los Al Fall-Winter Thoroughbred Meet, and to mark the occasion we've been gifted an all juvenile Late Pick Four.  There are a pair of stakes on the card, as Race 7 is the state-restricted King Glorious, while Race 8 is the Grade 1 Starlet for the fillies.  We'll be looking at both of those in depth, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 40k/Alw 40000s - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Room On the Broom (Morning Line 5-2)
# 4 Pico Chick (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Kellianne Can Can (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Seaside Fantasy (ML 4-1)
# 5 Story of Her Life (ML 10-1)

The conditions for this contest for juvenile fillies are as follows:

1) Have started for a claiming price of $40k or less (make it $50k or less if the horse is California bred or sired);

AND

2) Have never won two races;

OR

3) Claiming price of $40k.

Last things first: if you're willing to let your two year old filly run with a $40k price tag on her head, then you can enter her in this race regardless of how many career wins she may or may not have, or what if any claiming price she may have run with in any of her prior races.  If you don't want to put your juvenile filly up for sale, then she has to match both of the first two conditions.  For the record, none of the runners competing in this field have more than one career victory, while three of the entrants (Room On the Broom; Seaside Fantasy; and # 6 Central Casting (ML 15-1)) will be running for a tag.

Room On the Broom took the Place upstate last time out against OC 40k/N1X company, though that was more of a case of the rest of the field other than the winner backing up faster than she did in the stretch.  Room On the Broom is the only runner in this field to have won at today's distance, and her works over the Santa Anita main track suggest that she should improve moving away from Golden Gate's synthetic surface.

Pico Chick broke her maiden in her third try last time out, winning by as many as she pleased, and earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that towers over the career bests of the other entrants.  The concern with Pico Chick is that this will be her first try around two turns, and she may may find herself with a lot more company today on the front end early than she did in her last contest.

Kellianne Can Can and Story of Her Life each took the Show in separate events at this class level last time out.  Kellianne Can Can could move forward with the switch from turf to dirt.  Seaside Fantasy has been showing steady improvement over her last several races.

RACE 7 - [S] The King Glorious $100k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Glory Bound (ML 12-1)

B's

# 6 Family Code (ML 5-1)
# 9 Found Money (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Record Highs (ML 5-1)
# 7 Tough It Out (ML 4-1)
# 10 Xingontothebone (ML 6-1)

# 11 Gosofar (ML 20-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

Glory Bound, possessor of the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, in the only runner in this contest with a prior victory at today's distance on a fast dirt track.  Family Code looks to be the speed of the speed here and may improve with the added distance.  Found Money is the only prior stakes winner in this field, having defeated open company in the $125k Santa Anita Juvenile back in June.

Record Highs could improve with the added distance.  Tough It Out graduated around two turns last time out; but that was on the Del Mar grass, and he may regress with the return to dirt.  Xingontothebone made a nice move forward with the blinkers being put back on last time out.

RACE 8 - (F) The Starlet (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Stays in Vegas (ML 7-2)

B's

# 6 Surfside Tiara (ML 6-1)
# 9 Pretty N Cool (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Treasuring (ML 6-1)
# 4 Pacific Heat (ML 3-1)

Stays in Vegas is four-for-five for her career, all four wins coming in listed stakes.  Stays in Vegas' last two wins came on the grass, but Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer does quite well when moving his runners from turf to dirt.

Surfside Tiara, also trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has been progressing nicely and could make another move forward today.  Pretty N Cool, trained by Bob Baffert, is the only prior Graded Stakes winner in this field.  But Pretty N Cool's only two career losses came in the only two races where she went beyond six and a half furlongs; perhaps that's just a coincidence, or perhaps Pretty N Cool just doesn't want the added distance.

Treasuring, also trained by Bob Baffert, has been progressing nicely and could be speed on the rail.  Pacific Heat was an easy winner in both races of her two race career.  But this will be Pacific Heat's first try against open company, and the Beyer Speed Figures that she earned in those two victories were not especially strong.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Two Steps of Glory (ML 7-2)
# 9 Sarno's B F F (ML 8-1)

B's

# 2 Avaudrey (ML 3-1)

C's

# 4 B K Miss (ML 9-2)
# 6 Betty's Joy (ML 8-1)
# 10 Reinhermosa (ML 5-1)

# 1 Papa's Maggie (No Line) is a program scratch.

Last time out Two Steps of Glory dropped in class, cut back in distance, moved from turf to dirt, and added blinkers; only to disappoint as the Post Time Favorite.  Still, she did hold the Place after a strong pace duel, and having to travel a half furlong less today may make the difference.

Sarno's B F F, trained by Doug O'Neill, wanted no part of two turns last time out, and should improve today with the turn back in distance and the addition of blinkers.  Avaudrey took the Show in her debut last time out.  The concern with Avaudrey is that runners trained by George Papaprodromou rarely move forward when making their second attempt to graduate.

B K Miss and Betty's Joy both ran well in their respective debuts last time out, and could move forward today.  Reinhermosa has finished in the money several times at this class level; so the talent is there, now it's just a matter of desire.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,4 with 8 with 3 with 7,9  $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 6,8,9 with 3,6,9 with 2,7,9 $40.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 8 with 3 with 7,9  $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,7,10 with 3 with 7,9  $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 8 with 1,4 with 7,9  $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 8 with 3 with 4,6,10  $3.00

Total: $59.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:58 EST / 2:58 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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