RACE 6 - The Mathis Brothers Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Om (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 5 Soul Driver (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 4 Professor Berns (ML 15-1)
# 9 Vigilante (ML 6-1)
# 11 Ocho Ocho Ocho (ML 10-1)
# 1 Ground Rules (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Om looks to be much the best on paper, both in terms of class and Beyer Speed Figures; but since Om also looked to be much the best last time out when he disappointed as the Post Time odds-on favorite in the Hollywood Derby, it seems prudent to use a few others in this leg as well.
Soul Driver's form looks a lot better when you toss his last three races at nine furlongs and look just at the prior three at today's distance of eight furlongs. Soul Driver, along with Professor Berns and Vigilante, also figures to be running well late into what could be a hotly contested early pace.
Ocho Ocho Ocho returns to action after spending move than half a year on the bench. Trainer James Cassidy tends to do well with those returning from an extended layoff , and the sharp work on December 7 suggests Ocho Ocho Ocho is ready to roll.
RACE 7 - (F) The La Brea (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Hot City Girl (ML 3-1)
# 3 Cavorting (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 Ben's Duchess (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 5 Lily Pod (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Hot City Girl is much improved since donning the hood, having won all three contests in which she wore the blinkers. Cavorting, winner of the Grade 1 Test and the Grade 2 Prioress, seems to have developed a pattern where her Beyer Speed Figures run hot and cold. If the pattern holds, Saturday should be the day that she runs hot.
Ben's Duchess, winner of the Grade 3 LA Woman, is the local hero, with a career three-for-five record over this main track. Ben's Duchess has been working well for this one; note especially the best of seventy-one bullet fired Monday.
RACE 8 - The Malibu (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Runhappy (ML 6-5)
# 7 Lord Nelson (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 Marking (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 3 Watershed (ML 4-1)
Runhappy had a great deal of success with Maria Borell as his trainer; and while Runhappy is an obviously talented runner, it remains to be seen if that success will continue with the change in conditioner.
Lord Nelson, winner of the Grade 2 San Vicente over this main track back in February, last competed back in May on the Kentucky Derby undercard; but Trainer Bob Baffert does rather well when bringing runners back from an extended vacation, and Lord Nelson has shown the ability in the past to win off just works.
Marking and Watershed, both trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, have both earned Beyer Speed Figures that fit well with this field, albeit against lesser company. I give the edge to Marking as he's the one who goes faster in their morning workouts.
RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Hunt (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 4 Tale of Life (Jpn) (ML 7-2)
# 9 Second Summer (ML 8-1)
# 10 Unusually Green (ML 9-2)
# 11 What a View (ML 5-1)C's
None
# 3 China Girl Lover (ML 15-1) has been scratched. # 14 Kenjisstorm (ML 12-1) does not draw in from the Also Eligible List, but # 13 Tuco (Ire) (ML 8-1) will run.
Hunt (Ire) took the Place at this class level his last time out. Tale of Life (Jpn) gets some much needed class relief. Second Summer could be the one running best late; but there may not be enough pace here for him to chase.
Unusually Green seems to settle for a lot of minor awards; so I may have him overvalued as a "B" Selection. But make sure Unusually Green is on your tickets if you're playing the vertical wagers. What a View looks like the probable pacesetter here, so the main concern is can he hold on for nine furlongs.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 2,3 with 4,7 with 5 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 2,3,6 with 2,4,7 with 4,5,9,10,11 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,9,11 with 2,3 with 4,7 with 5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,3 with 3 with 5 $1.00
Total: $56.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:47 EST / 2:47 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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