Saturday, December 19, 2015

12/19/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the final weekend of the current Los Alamitos meet, and Saturday's card includes the meet's featured event, the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity.  That's Race 8 in the program, and we'll be looking at it below as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Percy's Bluff (Morning Line 4-1)
# 6 Roper (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 2 Okaad (ML 5-2)
# 3 Syndicated (ML 7-2)
# 8 Bound for Heaven (ML 10-1)

C's

None

Percy's Bluff is running for a more expensive price tag than the one that he had on his head when he won last time out; but it's not really much, if any, of a class jump, as the prior race was for open claimers, while this one is limited to runners in the N2X category.  The main concern with Percy's Bluff is how well his form will hold with the move back to dirt.

It took Roper eleven tries to graduate; but his form is much improved since he put on the hood three starts back.  Okaad won with a nice come from behind effort last time out; and there should be enough pace for him to chase in this field.

Syndicated and Bound for Heaven are both trained by Kelly Castaneda.  Syndicated has shown a tendency to settle for a lot of minor awards; but the drop in class should do him well.  Bound for Heaven projects to be the speed of the speed, and could be  tough to catch if he gets loose.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N$Y - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Madam Aamoura (ML 12-1)
# 9 Runaway Cherie (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 2 Holograeme (ML 3-1)
# 5 Enduring Erin (ML 5-1)
# 6 Wonderful Lie (ML 6-1)

C's

None

# 11 Grazenette (ML 6-1) and # 12 Backintheacademy (ML 12-1) do not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

Madam Aamoura, trained by Bob Baffert, sure didn't like charging down the hill at Santa Anita last time out.  Madam Aamoura should appreciate a return to dirt, where she has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in five tries.

Runaway Cherie, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, will be adding blinkers today.  Runaway Cherie's five furlong workout last week over the Santa Anita main track, where she was best out of seventy-six, suggests that she's ready to roll.

Holograeme's lone career victory came in her only prior start on this track.  Enduring Erin could be the one running best late.  Wonderful Lie moves up in class from the state restricted ranks; but the Beyer Speed Figures that Wonderful Lie has been earning fit well with the contenders here.

RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Toews On Ice (ML 9-5)
# 5 Mor Spirit (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Urlacher (ML 10-1)
# 6 Sorryaboutnothing (ML 12-1)

Toews On Ice and Mor Spirit, both trained by Bob Baffert, appear to be head and shoulders above the rest of the field at this point in time.  In the unlikely event that the two Baffert runners should both falter today, Urlacher and Sorryaboutnothing appear to be the best of the rest, especially if they can stay out of each other's way.

RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Lymebyrd (ML 3-1)

B's

# 5 Blue Ridge Mtn (ML 20-1)

C's

# 2 Pee Wee Reese (ML 5-1)
# 9 Nat's Nation (ML 12-1)
# 10 Eddie Haskell (ML 5-2)

# 1 Bobby Z (No Line) is a program scratch.  # 8 Gutsy Effort (ML 12-1) has also been scratched.

Lymebyrd just missed graduating by a neck at this class level in his debut last time out.  Bleu Ridge Mtn showed some quickness in his debut last time out, and should benefit from the drop in class from open company to state bred.  Pee Wee Reese, Nat's Nation, and Eddie Haskell are a trio of first time starters from sires whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5,6 with 8,9 with 4,5 with 7 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,6,8 with 2,5,6,8,9 with 4,5 with 5,7 $50.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 8,9 with 1,6 with 7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 8,9 with 4,5 with 2,9,10 $12.00

Total: $74.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:58 EST / 2:58 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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