Sunday, December 27, 2015

12/27/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Day Two of the extra-long meet at Santa Anita; and that's pretty much all I've got as far as introductions go.  So let's just get to it as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $16k N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Eagle Rock (Morning Line 9-2)
# 6 Tiz Jolie (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 10 Sciatica (ML 6-1)

C's

None

Eagle Rock moves up in class after winning at the N2L level last time, and could be the pacesetter in this field.  Tiz Jolie took the Place for this claiming price two and three starts back; but those two contests were against open claimers, while this is for non-winners of three races lifetime; which makes this a huge drop down the class ladder for Tiz Jolie.

The speed figures that Sciatica has earned fit well with the contenders here; but the concerns are that Sciatica is coming back from a six month layoff, as well as switching to a barn with a lower winning percentage.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Logan's Moon (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Wolf Man Rocket (ML 5-2)
# 4 Dream Team (ML 5-1)
# 8 Roy H (ML 6-1)

C's

# 5 Chief Lion (ML 8-1)
# 6 Horse Laugh (ML 15-1)

Logan's Moon has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three starts.  Wolf Man Rocket, trained by Bob Baffert, drops in class while returning from an extended layoff.  Dream Team, also trained by Bob Baffert, should improve with the turn back in distance.

Roy H has been competitive at this class level on the turf, and his recent works suggests that he'll do well getting off the grass.  Chief Lion took the Show two starts back at this class level, and has been working well over this main track.  Horse Laugh could wake up with the drop in class.

RACE 8 - (F) The Robert J Frankel (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Rusty Slipper (ML 9-2)
# 7 Stormy Lucy (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Alexis Tangier (ML 5-1)

C’s

# 6 Peace and War (ML 12-1)
# 12 Glory (ML 4-1)

# 1 Nancy From Nairobi (GB) (ML 12-1) and # 10 Sweet as a Rose (ML 30-1) have been scratched.

Rusty Slipper won the Grade 3 Red Carpet last time out.  Stormy Lucy, winner of the Grade 1 Matriarch last time, has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.

Alexis Tangier could improve with the stretch out in distance.  Peace and War's breeding suggests that he should do well with the switch to grass.  Glory is undefeated since going from dirt to turf.

RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 True Brilliance (ML 3-1)
# 10 Demonslayer (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Etailer (ML 5-1)

C's

# 5 Lost Dutchman (ML 7-2)

# 6 Ski Utah (No Line), # 8 Junior Gilliam (NL), and # 13 Speedin With Eddie (NL) are all program scratches.

Etailer, True Brilliance, and Demonslayer all did well in their respective debuts last time out.  The concern with Etailer is that his works have been dull of late.  Lost Duchman is a first time starter sired by Awesome Spirit, whose progeny have been doing quite well in their debuts (in a small sample size).

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,6 with 3 with 4,7 with 7,10 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6,10 with 1,3,4,8 with 3,4,7 with 1,7,10 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 5,6 with 4,7 with 7,10 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 3 with 6,12 with 7,10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 3 with 4,7 with 5 $2.00

Total: $76.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:04 EST / 3:04 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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