Thursday, December 31, 2015

12/31/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Juveniles running around on the grass are the featured performers on Thursday's card, as they'll be competing in the $75k Eddie Logan.  That contest will go as Race 7; so we'll be looking at it below as we take our final run in 2015 at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 5 - Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Noble Kent (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Carlsbad Mountain (ML 3-1)
# 3 Mucho Besos (ML 15-1)

C's

# 4 Duke of Doom (ML 7-2)
# 7 Luckbox Sam (ML 4-1)

Noble Kent missed winning by a head at this class level two starts back.  Carlsbad Mountain enters this contest with a two race winning streak, albeit versus lesser company.  Carlsbad Mountain's form looks much better if you focus on just those contests where he went around two turns.  Mucho Besos took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back.

Duke of Doom has hit the board against more expensive company in several of his more recent contests.  But all those affairs were upstate on either the grass or synthetic; and while Trainer Steve Miyadi does quite well when moving his runners from turf to dirt, Duke of Doom's poor performance in his most recent race suggests that this gelding may have been brought here more to increase his chances of being sold rather than his probability of finding the Winner's Circle.  By the way, note that Duke of Doom and Noble Kent, in addition to both being trained by Steve Miyadi, are also both owned by CM Racing.

Luckbox Sam was just a neck behind Carlsbad Mountain at the wire last time out; but Luckbox Sam will be going for a new barn in this contest as well as losing Victor Espinoza as a rider.

RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Grazen Sky (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 1 China Girl Lover (ML 6-1)
# 5 Tribal Jewel (ML 5-1)

C's

# 6 Avanti Bello (ML 7-2)
# 9 Got Even (ML 5-1)

# 2 Day in the Sun (ML 15-1) has been scratched.

Grazen Sky took the Place at this class level last time out, and has finished in the Exacta in all four of his career starts over this main track.  China Girl Lover has been performing well since joining the barn of Trainer Dan Hendricks, and could be the one running best late.

Tribal Jewel steps up from state bred to open company; but Tribal Jewel is three-for-six in his career at Santa Anita, and he looked much improved last time out with the removal of the blinkers.  Avanti Bello disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out; but Avanti Bello had to steady early in that contest, so perhaps that effort can be excused.  

Got Even settles for too many minor awards; but Got Even may be the speed of the speed here, and thus could be so far in front in the stretch that despite his best efforts he may not be able to slow down enough to allow anyone to catch him.

RACE 7 - The Eddie Logan $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Bully Pulpit (ML 20-1)
# 10 Canada (ML 3-1)

B's

# 7 Path of David (ML 5-2)

C's

# 4 Storming Candy (ML 12-1)

# 11 Tiz a Billy (ML 7-2) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

Bully Pulpit is the only runner in this contest to have beaten winners.  In his only prior try on the turf, Billy Pulpit took the Show in the Zuma Beach, which was run over this turf course at today's distance.  The main concern with Bully Pulpit is the addition of blinkers today; a move with which Trainer Craig Lewis does not enjoy much success.

Canada has been showing steadily improving form over the course of his four race career.  Path of David earned this field's best career Beyer Speed Figure last time out in his first attempt at graduating after switching to the barn of Trainer Kristin Mulhall.  Storming Candy could improve with the addition of Jockey Mike Smith as well as a Post Position closer to the rail.

RACE 8 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Spirit World (ML 3-1)
# 9 Adair (ML 5-1)

B's

# 1 What We Doing (ML 15-1)
# 6 Xerxes (ML 8-1)

C's

None

# 3 S M Royal Image (ML 15-1) has been scratched.

Spirit World just missed graduating by a head at this class level last time out.  Adair took the Show in his debut last time out.  What We Doing should improve with the return to sprinting.  Xerxes took the Place at this class level last time out, and could have things all his own way in the early going.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 8 with 3,10 with 4,9 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5 with 1,5,8 with 3,7,10 with 1,4,6,9 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 8 with 3,10 with 4,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6,9 with 3,10 with 4,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 8 with 4 with 4,9 $1.00

Total: $67.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:33 EST / 2:33 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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