1/8/17 Turf Paradise Pick Five - Preview

I decided to give the surface at Santa Anita another day to dry out; and, based upon the defections from Sunday's Grade 2 Santa Ynez (among them Noted and Quoted) it appears that I'm not the only one with serious concerns regarding how that track will play.  So with that, let's keep our action in Phoenix, as we take another run at The Pick Five at Turf Paradise.

RACE 4 - (F) Md $5k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Daddy Please (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Flashy Gold (ML 9-2)
# 9 Angelnaule (ML 5-2)

Daddy Please ships in from SoCal to make her first start for Owner/Trainer Val Brienkerhoff, who tends to do well with such.  Flashy Gold has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last two starts.  Angelnaule drops in class while stretching out to two turns on the main track for the first time.

RACE 5 - Clm $3k N2Y - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Five Star Bert (ML 3-1)
# 3 Hush My Mouth (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Another Bumper (ML 20-1)
# 7 Zoe's Cajun (ML 6-1)
# 9 Airborne Mark (ML 5-2)
# 11 Anillo (ML 7-2)

C's

# 8 Mr Red R (ML 12-1)

The cutoff date to qualify for this contest is July 8, 2016.  So as long as you haven't won two races since July 8, 2016 (excepting claiming races for $2.5k or less; they don't count, so you could've won as many of those as you wanted) you're good to go.

Five Star Bert took the Show at this class level last time out, disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Hush My Mouth made a nice move forward last time out, and Trainer Stetson Rushton tends to do well when placing his last out winners.

Another Bumper and Zoe's Cajun took the Place and Show (respectively) at this class level over this main track last month.  Airborne Mark moves up in class after winning by as many as he wanted last time out.  Anillo took the Show at this class level last time out, and beat Airborne Mark to the wire by three lengths two starts back.  Mr Red R could improve going second off the layoff.

RACE 6 - Clm $3.5k N3L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Awesome Addback (ML 5-2)

B's

# 6 Tavern Law (ML 4-1)
# 10 Grand Sunset (ML 3-1)

C's

# 8 Roll Westward (ML 20-1)
# 9 Significat (ML 5-1)

Awesome Addback moves up in class after winning by daylight for Trainer Robertino Diodoro last time out.  Tavern Law and Grand Sunset dead heated for the Place at this class level last time out.

Roll Westward could have things all his own way during the early stages of this contest.  Significat may or may not have been injured last time out.   If Significat is in his usual form, then he fits well with the contenders here.

RACE 7 - Clm $3k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Profound Visionary (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 6 Joint Tenant (ML 7-2)
# 7 My T Quick (ML 8-1)

This contest is restricted to runners which have either:

1) Not won a race since July 8, 2016; OR
2) Which have never won four races.

Excepting claiming races for $2.5k or less; they don't count.

So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race.  If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have been since 7/8/2016 in order for the horse to be entered here.

Profound Visionary made a big move forward last time out in his first try over this main track for Trainer Robertino Diodoro.  Joint Tenant has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last three starts.  My T Quick gets some class relief, as well as a change in rider.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $3k N1Y - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Velocita (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 4 Sour Girl (ML 6-1)
# 5 No Slippahs (ML 6-1)
# 9 Surf Queen (ML 30-1)

C's

# 2 Lostinthismoment (ML 3-1)
# 3 Key Affair (ML 4-1)
# 8 Just After Sunset (ML 7-2)

Scratch # 11 Thunder Citation (ML 30-1)

The cutoff date to qualify for this contest is December 31, 2015.  So as long as you haven't won a race so far this year, and didn't win one last year (excepting claiming races for $2.5k or less; they don't count, so you could've won as many of those as you wanted) you're good to go.

Velocita could move up with the increase in distance.  Sour Girl took the Show at this class level last time out.  No Slippahs has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last two starts on the main track, and could be the one running best late.

Surf Queen could move forward with a decent trip.  Lostinthismoment has proven to be competitive at this class level.  Key Affair could be the early leader if she gets a good break.  Just After Sunset may be able to carry her early speed longer today.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 7 with 2,3 with 3 with 3 with 7 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,2,3,7,9,11 with 3,6,10 with 3 with 4,5,7,9 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 2,9 with 2,3 with 3 with 3 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 8 with 3 with 3 with 7 $0.50
$0.50 P5: 7 with 2,3 with 8,9 with 3 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 2,3 with 3 with 6,7 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 2,3 with 3 with 3 with 2,3,8 $3.00

Total: $47.50

Post Time for Race 4 is 4:12 EST / 1:12 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo