Wednesday, April 12, 2017

4/12/17 Charles Town Late Pick Four - Preview

Found myself with some time on my hands, so I figured I'd grab a little mid-week action, only to see that the West Coast tracks are all dark until Friday.  And I mean "ALL".  Not just California's Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields, but also Turf Paradise and Sunland Park.  Even Emerald Downs is dark, as they won't have a live card until Saturday.  So, with no options to the West, we turn to the East, and set our sights upon West Virginia; as, ten days prior to the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic, we take a run at The Late Pick Four at Hollywood Casino At Charles Town Races.

RACE 5 - Clm $5k N2X - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Breadman's Big Guy (Morning Line (3-1)
# 5 Contemplate (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 2 Mr. Harmon (ML 5-1)
# 4 Caution High Water (ML 6-1)

# 6 It's Bull Bat Time (ML 15-1)
# 8 North Forest Star (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 7 Destrier (ML 10-1).  Bring in # 11 L G Crash (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible list.

Breadman's Big Guy won at this class level last time out, closing over a sealed muddy track, and defeating several that he will be facing again this evening.  Contemplate missed by by less than a length in the other division of this class level contest back on March 24, disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.

Mr. Harmon took the Place behind Breadman's Big Guy last time out.  Caution High Water defeated state-bred company in two of his last three races, and was not embarrassed the last time that he faced open (non-state bred) company.  In each of his last two starts It's Bull Bat Time has finished just behind Breadman's Big Guy; perhaps tonight's change in rider will allow It's Bull Bat Time to turn to tables.  North Forest Star closed well after a rough break last time out. 

RACE 6 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Forest Night (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Past the Stars (ML 5-1)
# 3 Lil Marshmallow (ML 5-2)
# 4 Midnight With Luti (ML 12-1)

# 5 Wilko Freeway (ML 6-1)
# 6 Floating By (ML 2-1)


C's

None

Forest Night makes his three year old debut here after twice taking the Show against non-claiming maidens as a juvenile.  The "B" Selections are everyone else.  Needless to say, I consider this to be a very evenly matched field, made all the more complicated by the near total lack of early speed.  I believe this contest could easily devolve into chaos, with a half dozen runners all looking at each other and going, "No; you first"; or perhaps even with one horse breaking well out of the gate and the others just letting him go as they fall in line behind.  Either way, choosing which runner(s) to eliminate would constitute more stabbing than selecting; so, for that reason, we'll be hitting the "ALL" button for this leg.

RACE 7 - [S] ALW N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 2 Tampered Character (ML 7-5)

B's

# 6 He's Royal (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Bearcat Kitten / # 1A Blixt (ML 5-2)
# 4 Charitable Flight (ML 15-1)

Note that Bearcat Kitten is actually a Maryland bred (Barak Farm), but is eligible to compete in this contest because his sire, Limehouse, stands at O'Sullivan Farms in Charles Town.

Tampered Character won his debut by as many as he pleased last time out in front of a next out winner.  He's Royal took the Show at this class level last time out, and could move up with the increase in distance.  Blixt took the Place between two next out winners last time out.  Charitable Flight needed that last race after spending nine months on the bench.

RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Start Your Engine (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Golden Man (ML 4-1)
# 5 Run Banner (ML 9-5)
# 6 Good Sport (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Note that Good Sport is actually a Virginia bred (Vermont Farm), but is eligible to compete in this contest because his sire, Hunt Crossing, stands at O'Sullivan Farms in Charles Town.

Start Your Engine took the Place at this class level last time out.  Golden Man and Run Banner are a pair of first time starters that have been training well for this contest.  Good Sport has proven to be competitive at this class level.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,5 with 1 with 2 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5 with ALL with 2,6 with 2,4,5,6 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,8 with 1 with 2 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 1 with 1,4 with 4 $2.00

Total: $54.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 8:51 EDT / 5:51 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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