Graded Stakes competition comes to Northern California Saturday, as the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile is the featured race on the Golden Gate card. We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - Md $12.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Pepper and Salt (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 1 V F Beestrong (ML 20-1)
# 2 Tuscan Warrior (ML 4-1)
# 5 Get Like Me (ML 3-1)
# 6 Smoke and Burn (ML 10-1)
# 7 Proudtobesicillian (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 4 Ron Again (ML 5-1)
There are three reasons why I won't be putting in a Golden Pick Six play Saturday. Those three reasons are Races 4, 5, and 6. Race 4 is a contest for two year old juveniles, in which the entire field is making their career debut. Race 5 is carded for non-claiming state bred Maidens, three years old and upward, scheduled to be run at a distance of eight and a half furlongs on some California grass. None of the entrants in Race 5 has ever previously raced on the turf.
So any selections I would make in Races 4 and 5 would be pure pedigree plays; and while that can be an entertaining challenge in a leg of a sequence wager, having two such legs fall into that category tends to make a six race play either too expensive, or more stabbing than selecting. Still, I might have been tempted to give it a go were it not for Race 6.
As you can see above, we're using everyone on our big ticket for the opening leg of The Late Pick Four. While we could reasonably whittle down the contenders by eliminating a couple of starters from our play, I don't think such a move is in our best interests in a contest this competitive. Had Race 6 contained a clear standout or pair of standouts, we might possibly have put together a reasonably priced Golden Pick Six play using all or most of the fields of Races 4 and 5. But in my opinion Race 6 on paper is just too close to call; so rather than turn this into a lottery and stab at numbers in Races 4, 5, and 6, we'll simply set the bar lower today and focus on the final four events on the card.
RACE 7 - The San Francisco Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 G. G. Ryder (ML 5-1)
# 6 Alert Bay (ML 8-5)
B's
# 4 Many Roses (ML 8-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 3 Patentar (Fr) (ML 5-2)
G. G. Ryder, winner of this event two years back, is making his first turf start since last year's running of this contest, and could improve with the surface switch. Alert Bay, winner of last year's running of this contest, looks to be in top form with his win in a no-condition Allowance race over the Tapeta main track last time out, in a field that contained many that Alert Bay will be facing again today. Many Roses looks to be quickest by far in this field, and could steal this one on the front end.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Mended (ML 1-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Aly's Last Magic (ML 5-1)
# 6 Sea Myrtle (ML 10-1)
# 8 Bow Tie Belle (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 5 French Tart (ML 15-1)
Mended is a perfect three-for-three since joining the barn of Trainer John Martin, and there's little reason to think that she can't make it four in a row. Aly's Last Magic was victorious last time out in a field that contained a few that are entered in this event. Sea Myrtle defeated open (non-conditioned) claimers last time out and could be the one running best late. Bow Tie Belle, who lost all chance at the break last time out, took the Place in a troubled trip behind Mended two starts back.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 32k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Ryder's Starlight (ML 10-1)
# 7 An Unusual Group (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Russian Radiance (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Top Tizzy (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 8 Spring Heat (ML 20-1)
Ryder's Starlight got her picture taken three of the last four times that she competed on the turf. An Unusual Group was a winner over this turf course two starts back, and seems to fit best on class. Russian Radiance (GB) will be making her first turf start since coming to North America. Top Tizzy returns off the freshening and will try to take this field from gate to wire.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1,6 with 2 with 4,7 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,4,6 with 2 with 1,4,5,7 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,6 with 1,6,8 with 4,7 $6.00
Total: $46.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:21 EDT / 3:21 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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