"The grass may be greener on the other side of the fence, but you still have to mow it." - Anonymous
We'll be looking at a lot of grass in the bay area Saturday, as half of the final six races on the Golden Gate card are scheduled for the lawn. So with that let's get to it, as we take another run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 4 - Clm $4k B - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Lota Spunk (Morning Line 10-1)
B's
# 6 On Fire (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Mark Ye Well (ML 5-2)
# 2 Papa G (ML 9-5)
# 4 The Natural (ML 10-1)
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since March 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a horse has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, than none of those Wins could have come in either this month or last (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $3.5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record, # 3 Off the Deep End (ML 7-2), # 5 Lota Spunk (ML 10-1), and # All That Rocks (ML 6-1) are the three runners in this field with four or more career Wins.
Lota Spunk defeated open $3.2k Claimers last time out; and while the claiming price is higher today, the lack of conditions in the prior contest means that this is, at worst, a lateral move on the class ladder for Lota Spunk.
On Fire should improve with the return to one turn racing. Mark Ye Well probably needs more pace to chance than what he'll find here today; but Mark Ye Well certainly fits at this class level.
Papa G has shown improvement in each of his last two contests; but the fact that Papa G has backed up in the stretch in each of his four races since his return is a concern. The Natural filled out the Superfecta behind On Fire two starts back, and, like that rival, should improve with the reduction in real estate.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Lazzarella (ML 9-2)
B’s
# 5 Sheeza Sassy Girl (ML 6-1)
# 7 Everybody Does It (ML 6-1)
C's
# 6 Smiling Ann (ML 5-2)
# 8 Rebeccas in Charge (ML 7-2)
Lazzarella ran well in her one turf try two starts back downstate, and should turn the tables on several in here with the change in surface. Sheeza Sassy Girl fits here on class, but there's no guarantee regarding how she'll handle the lawn. Everybody Does It won by the length of the stretch in her only prior turf try.
Smiling Ann would probably be an "A" Selection were this contest being run on the main track; but I'm not convinced that Smiling Ann's debut on the grass will be a happy one for her connections. Rebeccas in Charge has won two of her last three starts; but Rebeccas in charge will be trying turf for the first time, as well as competing for the first time with blinkers on; and your guess is at least as good as mine as to how she'll handle those changes.
RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Thorny Weather (ML 7-2)
B's
# 3 Elegant Tanner (ML 3-1)
# 6 Regal Born (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Uptown Street (ML 15-1)
# 9 River House (ML 6-1)
Thorny Weather took the Place in his debut at this class level last time out, and could improve with the reduction in distance. Regal Born and Elegant Tanner took the Place and Show, respectively, in a common race at this class level last time out in which they each made their career debut. Uptown Street and River House are a pair of first time starters whose pedigrees suggest that they will be ready to run at first asking.
RACE 7 - Clm $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Unusual Meeting (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fly Lexis Fly (ML 9-2)
B’s
None
C's
# 6 Small Town Cop (ML 4-1)
# 9 Noble Nick (ML 12-1)
Unusual Meeting missed victory at this class level by just a neck the last time that he competed on the lawn. Fly Lexis Fly defeated classier competition the last time that he ran on the grass.
Small Town Cop has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four races (all against Allowance company) and should appreciate the class relief here. Noble Nick appears to be the quickest in this field, and just might steal it on the front end.
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 Claudia Mae (ML 9-2)
B's
# 3 Princess Ashlyn (ML 5-2)
# 6 Amber Louise (ML 7-2)
# 8 Briartic Gal (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Claudia Mae took the Show behind Briartic Gal last time out; while Briartic Gal, in her most recent race, took the Show behind Amber Louise; while Amberber Louise has finished well behind Claudia Mae in in two of her last three starts. So any of these three can beat the other two on any given day. As for which one will come out ahead today, I think Claudia Mae shows signs of being the one most likely to move forward.
Princess Ashlyn ships in from downstate and looks to fit in well with the contenders here; but this will be Princess Ashlyn's first race on a synthetic surface, and her workout over this main track on the 15th doesn't inspire confidence that she will handle it well.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Onefortheteam (ML 7-2)
# 10 Cedar Rapids (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C's
# 8 Monsajem Saltant (ML 20-1)
# 9 Become an Insider (ML 10-1)
Onefortheteam ships in from downstate and will go first time for Trainer John Martin. Onefortheteam's pedigree suggests that he will do well with the switch to the lawn. Cedar Rapids took the Show the only prior time in his career that he ran for a tag.
Monsajem Saltant showed some late interest in his debut last time out, and could improve with the change of surface. Become an Insider took the Show at this class level the last time that he competed around two turns.
OK, that's the analysis. While this is a jackpot wager, we won't be putting all our selections on one ticket. While we still hold out hope that this could be the luckiest day of our lives, budgetary constraints must be respected. I think it's also safe to presume that our "A" Selections won't form the basis of a unique ticket, so we should be safe in pressing those up. So with all that, playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P6: 5 with 1 with 10 with 3,5 with 7 with 5,10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P6: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 3,6,10 with 3,5 with 3,6,7,8 with 5,10 $57.60
A's with One C
$0.20 P6: 1,2,4 with 1 with 10 with 3,5 with 7 with 5,10 $2.40
$0.20 P6: 5 with 6,8 with 10 with 3,5 with 7 with 5,10 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 5 with 1 with 1,9 with 3,5 with 7 with 5,10 $1.60
$0.20 P6: 5 with 1 with 10 with 6,9 with 7 with 5,10 $0.80
$0.20 P6: 5 with 1 with 10 with 3,5 with 7 with 8,9 $0.80
Total: $68.80
Post Time for Race 4 is 5:15 EDT / 2:15 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment