It's Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar Saturday, the biggest day of the Summer meet; and the card does not disappoint, teeming as it is with quality stakes, including the aforementioned Pacific Classic, as well as the Del Mar Oaks. I'll be looking at both of those contests below, as I take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Collected (Morning Line 5-2)
# 3 Accelerate (ML 3-1)
# 8 Arrogate (ML 1-1)
B's
None
C's
# 6 Donworth (ML 15-1)
# 7 Curlin Road (ML 20-1)
So what happened to Arrogate last time out in the Grade 2 San Diego? Beats me. Can it happen again Saturday? Maybe. How's that for insightful analysis! Obviously, if Arrogate's trainer Bob Baffert doesn't know what went wrong with his horse, than no one knows. What I do know is that Arrogate is the classiest runner in this field, and there's no way I'm going to lose a Pick Four because I didn't cover the most obvious Favorite on the card.
Collected, the "other" Baffert, is undefeated in his 2017 campaign thus far, and seems to be getting better with each effort. Accelerate has now finished in front of Arrogate twice in his career. Donworth and Curlin Road are both trained by Doug O'Neill; and if anyone can upset this apple cart, I would expect it to be an O'Neill trained runner.
RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Street Vision (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Nardo (ML 15-1)
# 6 Tell Me a Story (ML 15-1)
# 8 Americanize (ML 3-1)
# 10 Edwards Going Left (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 The Rule of King's (ML 20-1)
Street Vision has looked much improved over his last two starts; so while he has failed multiple times at this class level in the past, Street Vision may at last be ready to take that class step forward. Nardo has previously won at this level, and could improve off the freshening. Tell Me a Story could improve with the turn back in distance.
Americanize took the Place at this class level last time out. Edwards Going Left is making the move from state bred stakes company; I'd call that a lateral move, in which case Edwards Going Left fits well here with the contenders. The Rule of King's graduated by daylight last time out; the question Saturday is will his speed hold with the class jump.
RACE 10 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Madam Dancealot (Ire) (ML 9-2)
B's
# 5 Con Te Partiro (ML 7-2)
# 12 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Kenda (ML 20-1)
# 11 Pacific Wind (ML 12-1)
# 13 Tapped (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 4 Pistol Packin Rose (ML 30-1) and # 14 Bernina Star (ML 30-1)
Madam Dancealot (Ire) won the Grade 2 San Clemente over this turf course last time out by daylight, and seems to have the breeding to handle the increased real estate. Con Te Partiro returns from overseas after taking the Sandringham at Royal Ascot last time out; a repeat of that effort could get the job done today.
Beau Recall (Ire) is multi-times Graded Stakes placed, and could improve with a return to the West Coast. Kenda was through early last time out; perhaps she'll have an easier time of it in the early going today. Pacific Wind and Tapped are two that could move up with the increase in real estate.
RACE 11 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Halley Rachele (ML 6-1)
# 8 Laynee (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Jabber Now (ML 8-1)
# 5 Warm It Up (ML 12-1)
# 6 Powder (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 1 Meet and Greet (ML 7-2)
Halley Rachele has twice missed graduation by less than a length at this class level in her three career starts. Laynee took the Place in front of Halley Rachele last time out.
Jabber Now adds blinkers while changing surfaces; perhaps she'll improve with the adjustments. Warm It Up took the Place at this class level last time out at Los Al. Powder may improve with the freshening.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,3,8 with 3 with 2 with 2,8 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,8 with 2,3,6,8,10 with 2,5,12 with 2,8 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 2 with 2,8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3,8 with 4 with 2 with 2,8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3,8 with 3 with 1,11,13 with 2,8 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3,8 with 3 with 2 with 4,5,6 $4.50
Total: $69.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:45 EDT / 5:45 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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