Sunday, August 27, 2017

8/27/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

While I was playing Golden Gate Fields Saturday in preference to Ferndale, one lucky bettor took the opposite tack, taking down The Gold Rush Pick Six Jackpot with a single winning ticket that cashed to the tune of $27,426.40 for a twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.  As for me, I'll be attempting to do Sunday that which I had failed to accomplish on Saturday.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take another run at at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Lucky Cleric (Morning Line 5-1)
# 8 Bold Charmant (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Power Time (ML 7-2)
# 5 Alive and Well (ML 9-2)
# 6 Night At the Opera (ML 3-1)
# 7 La Waun (ML 20-1)

Bold Charmant and Lucky Cleric took the Place and Show, respectively, against open company non-claiming maidens last time out.  Alive and Well is the only runner in this field to have competed over this main track.  Power Time, Night At the Opera, and La Waun are all first time starters that have been conditioned by trainers (Billy Morey, Jerry Hollendorfer, and Frank Lucarelli, respectively) whose chargers tend to do well at first asking.

RACE 7 - (F) Alw 4000s - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Warrens Goldnugget (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 6 Foreverinsummer (ML 3-1)
# 7 Exactamente (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Tanger (ML 6-1)

Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California (such as Race 9 below) this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry.  So any filly or mare that has started for a claiming price of $4k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.

Warrens Goldnugget, winner by open lengths last time out (albeit on the dirt) goes first off the claim (actually re-claim) for Trainer Bill McLean, who tends to do well with such.  Warrens Goldnugget is three-for-eleven lifetime over this turf course.

Foreverinsummer should improve with the return to two turn racing.  Exactamente fits well with these on class; though Exactamente may be on the wrong surface.  Tanger could be the one running best late.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 2 Oil (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Paynes Prairie (ML 7-2)
# 5 Tribal Storm (ML 10-1)
# 6 Brownie Finale (ML 8-1)
# 7 Mi Bouchon (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sheer Flattery (ML 5-1)
# 11 Southern Loyalty (ML 6-1)

C's

# 10 Tentwelvefourteen (M 12-1)

Oil has finished in the Exacta in each of his last six races, and is three-for-five lifetime over this main track.  Paynes Prairie returns to the barn of Jonathan Wong, for whom he has run well in the past.  Tribal Storm took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit on real dirt.

Brownie Finale has run well in the past over this surface, and Trainer Victor Trujillo tends to do well when placing his last out winners.  Mi Bouchon was victorious under these conditions earlier this year, and could improve with a return to the synthetic.  Sheer Flattery is getting some much needed class relief.

Southern Loyalty could move up with the freshening, and could get a nice stalking trip with the outside post.  Tentwelvefourteen fits well here with the contenders, but seems to settle for too many minor awards.

RACE 9 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Going for the Win (ML 6-1)
# 5 Kittenmeister (ML 7-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Tune to Win (ML 4-1)
# 6 Onefortheteam (ML 9-2)
# 7 Smoke and Burn (ML 12-1)
# 9 Whisky N Roses (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 3 Become an Insider (ML 8-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and just one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less.  For the record, # 4 Going for the Win (ML 6-1) is the only runner in this field to have gotten his picture taken twice.

As mentioned above, Going for the Win is the only multi-race winner in this field, and both of Going for the Win's career victories have come over this turf course.  Kittenmeister took the Place at this class level two starts back.

Tune to Win closed well to graduate last time out, and could improve with the stretchout in distance.  Onefortheteam won for fun while graduating over this turf course last time out, albeit for a different barn.  Smoke and Burn took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on dirt.  Whisky N Roses took the Show at this class level over this turf course earlier this year.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 2,8 with 2 with 2 with 4,5 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 2,6,7 with 2,4,5,6,7,8,11 with 4,5 $42.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7 with 2 with 2 with 4,5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 3 with 2 with 4,5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 2 with 10 with 4,5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 2 with 2 with 1,6,7,9 $4.00

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:26 EDT / 4:26 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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