The Robert Dupret Derby is Sunday's featured race at The Sonoma County Fair at Santa Rosa; and that's about all I have by way of introduction. So let's get to it, as I take a run at Wine Country Racing's Late Pick Four at Santa Rosa.
RACE 7 - Clm $8k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Sizzlin' Joe (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Danas Best (Aus) (ML 7-2)
# 6 Solomon Bay (ML 3-1)
C's
# 3 Nahem (ML 6-1)
# 4 American Aristocat (ML 9-2)
Scratch # 5 Press Baron (GB) (ML 10-1)
Sizzlin' Joe was victorious last time out for a higher price tag; though with so many other class droppers in this field, I would consider this to be a lateral class move for Sizzlin' Joe. Danas Best (Aus) goes first off the claim for Trainer John Martin, who tends to do well with such. Solomon Bay should improve with the move back to the grass.
Nahem and Danas Best have taken turns finishing in front of each other lately; but Nahem appears to need the early lead to win, and he may have problems getting to the front today. American Aristocat could move up with the return to the turf.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Exactamente (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Optimism and Hope (ML 2-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 4 Bow Tie Belle (ML 8-1)
Exactamente wired the field against more expensive last time out, and looks to be the quickest in this field. Optimism and Hope disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last two starts; but perhaps Optimism and Hope can move up in her first try over the main track, as Trainer John Martin tends to do well when moving his runners from the turf to the dirt.
RACE 9 - The Robert Dupret Derby $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Grecian Fire (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 Alsatian (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Golden Doughnut (ML 10-1)
# 4 Harvest a Storm (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 2 Singaprayer (ML 20-1) and # 9 Perfect Come Back (ML 8-1)
Grecian Fire, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has done well in the past when shipping in from downstate for a listed stake. Alsatian, trained by Neil Drysdale, has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in exactly half of his eight career races. The talent is certainly there for Alsatian; perhaps the change of scenery will spur him to move up today.
Golden Doughnut and Harvest a Storm have taken turns finishing in front of each other of late. While I don't think either is of the same class as Grecian Fire or Alsatian, I do think that either Golden Doughnut or Harvest a Storm could get the win today with the proper pace setup (Harvest a Storm early or Golden Doughnut late).
RACE 10 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Lucky Lucciana (ML 2-1)
# 4 Song for the Crowd (ML 4-1)
# 5 Cheap O Charlie (ML 12-1)
B's
# 1 Genuwine Wine (ML 15-1)
# 6 A J's Hope (ML 7-2)
# 7 Atsina Warrior (ML 6-1)
# 8 Reuben James (ML 6-1)
# 9 Mister Fancy Bean (ML 20-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 3 Tiz Jims (ML 15-1)
Lucky Lucciana took the Place against more expensive two starts back, and could move up with the return to one turn racing. Song for the Crowd took the Show at this class level last time out.
Cheap O Charlie returns from an extended vacation after taking the Place against more expensive last time out. Cheap O Charlie appears to be working well for this; though the published workout of July 11 at Sacramento of three furlongs in over forty-two seconds is a bit of a head scratcher. Not sure if the clocker punched in the wrong number, or if Cheap O Charlie stopped midway through the work to sign some autographs before continuing on.
The "B" Selections are everyone else in the field. This one looks to be wide open to me, and if I make it this far in my play I don't want to lose out because I eliminated the wrong long shot from my big ticket.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 6 with 8 with 2,4,5 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,6,8 with 5,6 with 6,8 with ALL $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 6 with 8 with 2,4,5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 6 with 1,4 with 2,4,5 $3.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:18 EDT / 4:18 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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