12/15/17 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

Last weekend it was Golden Gate that wrapped up their Fall season; now this weekend it's Los Alamitos' turn, as they enter the home stretch of their Fall Meeting.  So with these being the final days for California Thoroughbred racing until after Christmas, I thought it would be a good idea to squeeze another day of fun from the proceedings; which is why Friday I'll be taking another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 5 - (F) Alw 12500s - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Backintheacademy (Morning Line 4-1)

# 5 Jill Madden (ML 6-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Tizway That Way (ML 5-2)

# 7 Ryder's Starlight (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 2 Fly Far Away (ML 15-1) and # 3 Exactamente (ML 3-1)

Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry; but it does have a class/recency Win restriction.  So in addition to the requirement that the filly or mare seeking to be entered must have started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less, either this year or last, she must ALSO have not won a claiming, starter, or optional claiming race exceeding that $12.5k price tag in the time period after competing in that $12.5k claiming contest.

So the two questions to answer if you wanted to run your filly or mare here are:

1)  Did she run for a claiming price of $12.5k or less in 2016 or 2017?  If "Yes", then proceed to:

2)  Has she won since, in a race where she was entered for more than that $12.5k tag?  If "No", then you're good to go.

So in this field, # 3 Exactamente (ML 3-1), # 4 Backintheacademy (ML 4-1), # 5 Jill Madden (ML 6-1), and # 6 Sheswildnfree (ML 6-1) all ran for a $12.5k or less claiming price last time out.  Since that was their most recent race, they obviously have not won since that race, heading into Friday.

# 1 Tizway That Way (ML 5-2) won while competing with a $5k price tag on her head two starts back, at Arlington Park.  Since Tizway That Way failed to win the next time out, the only race between the running for the $5k claiming price and today, then she's good to go here.  # 7 Ryder's Starlight (ML 4-1) ran for a claiming price of $12.5k back on September 16, 2016; and while Ryder's Starlight has visited the Winner's Circle twice since that contest, both of those Wins came when she was competing in a $12.5k Starter Allowance (much like Friday's event).

Which leaves # 2 Fly Far Away (ML 15-1); which is somewhat problematic.  See, Fly Far Away ran for a claiming price of $12.5k back on September 27, 2015, and she hasn't won since.  But September 27, 2015 wasn't in either 2016 nor 2017; at least, not on my calendar.  So how did Fly Far Away sneak into Friday's contest?

Well, while I can't know for sure, I think the answer lies in Race 3 at Emerald Downs on August 15, 2016; a contest in which Fly Far Away took the Place.  That race was a $15k Waiver Claiming contest; but runners could get a three pound weight allowance by entering the gate with a $12.5k price tag on their head.  Now, according to the Equibase chart of the race, Flay Far Away did not run for the $12.5k price tag; indeed, Fly Far Away didn't run for any price tag because, having been inactive for nearly eleven months at that point (and thus making her 2016 debut), she was eligible to compete without threat of being claimed (hence the "Waiver" in the Waiver Claiming title above).

So the Los Alamitos stewards either choose to look the other way at that one, deciding that having a $12.5k claiming price in the conditions for that race was close enough; or the connections of Fly Far Away simply slipped one past them, as those in the racing office who are supposed to check such things just had something else to do.  Anyway, whatever the reason, Fly Far Away will be running in this contest Friday.  At least, as I type this.  EDIT: Fly Far Away has now been scratched.

Okay; enough with the conditions.  Backintheacademy and Jill Madden were each convincing winners in their respective contests last time out.  Tizway That Way and Ryder's Starlight both fit well here with the contenders as far as talent goes; but neither Tizway That Way nor Ryder's Starlight have done well in the past when competing over a Fast dirt track.

RACE 6 - Clm $6.25k - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Pat the Bear (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Quantum Force (ML 4-1)

# 5 Johns Journey (ML 7-2)

# 7 Warren's Cole (ML 8-1)
# 8 My Secret Affair (ML 3-1)

Pat the Bear took the Place against more expensive two starts back.  Quantum Force could romp here if he could return to the form that he showed two starts back in his debut.  But that contest was back on Independence Day, 2015; and if Quantum Force's connections thought that he could return to that form, they wouldn't be running him here for $6.25k.

Johns Journey won by daylight against classier foes back in July.  Warren's Cole may be the one running best late.  My Secret Affair is getting some significant class relief here; but My Secret Affair may need this race to get back into shape off the layoff, as she faded badly in her return last time out.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Plane Lucky (ML 5-2)

# 7 Dreamy Gal (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 2 Be a Lady (ML 3-1)

# 5 Tuscany Beauty (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 No Comparison (ML 20-1)
# 3 Bold At Night (ML 5-1)
# 4 Princess Kendra (ML 5-1)

Plane Lucky looks to be the speed of the speed here; perhaps Plane Lucky can last 'til the wire today.  Dreamy Gal had a rough go of it last time out; perhaps she improves with a cleaner trip today.

Be a Lady goes first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt, who tends to do well with such.  Tuscany Beauty could benefit from the cutback in distance.  The "C" Selections are everyone else, as there's no notable standout in this field, and three of the four runners on the big ticket failed as the Post Time Favorite in their most recent contests.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six and a Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Raising Aida (ML 9-2)

B's

# 1 Ahimsa (ML 7-2)

# 2 Star Dreamin (ML 8-1)

# 3 Cowboytakemeaway (ML 6-1)

# 5 Gracious Me (ML 6-1)

# 6 Loving Moment (ML 6-1)
# 7 Ride Lady Ride (ML 5-1)

# 8 D D's Lute (ML 6-1)

# 9 Jazzy (ML 20-1)

C's

None

These are juveniles, with only three experienced runners in the field: Star Dreamin, D D's Lute, and Jazzy.  None of the three has ever left the gate as the Post Time Favorite; indeed, of the three, D D's Lute is the only one to have gone to the post at single digit odds.  In addition, none of the three has ever finished in the Trifecta.  For that matter, D D's Lute is the only one of the three to have been as good as third at the stretch call.

But these are juveniles; so there's no telling who's grown up since the last time that they competed.  There are also several first time starters whose breeding suggests that will run well at first asking.  So I'm just going to take the easy way out in this leg and punch the "ALL" button on the big ticket and hope that I catch a price.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,5 with 4 with 6,7 with 4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 4 with 2,5,6,7 with ALL $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,7 with 4 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1,5,7,8 with 6,7 with 4 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 4 with 1,3,4 with 4 $3.00

Total: $53.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:28 EST / 2:28 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo