12/9/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

I'm sure by now nearly all of you are aware of the devastation caused by the Lilac fire, which consumed the San Luis Rey Downs Training Center this past Thursday.  Allow me please to express my deepest sympathies to all those who have suffered loss from this tragic event.  I pray that all who are now mourning will be comforted, that all who have been injured will be healed, and that all those that have perished will forever be remembered fondly.

I'd also like to give a special word of thanks and praise for the oh so many in the horseracing community who have done oh so much in oh so many ways to help during this most trying of times.  May you all be blessed, always, for the way that you have stepped forward during this difficult period.

I'd also like to mention, for anyone that is still seeking a way to help those in need, please consider visiting the official Go Fund Me page for the San Luis Rey Downs Fire Relief Effort, sponsored by Santa Anita Park, The Stronarch Group, and the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.  You can reach the Go Fund Me page via the Del Mar home page (which will also provide you with additional information as to how you can help) or by going directly to this web address: https://www.gofundme.com/thoroughbredcare  Again, thanks to all for all that you have done.

Saturday's featured event is the $75k Bear Fan for California bred or sired Fillies and Mares.  That contest is slated for Race 7, and I'll be taking a look at it below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] The Bear Fan $75k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Dis Smart Cat (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 4 Cuddle Alert (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Spring Heat (ML 20-1)
# 6 Fast and Foxy (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 2 Princess Ashlyn (ML 7-2) and # 9 Precious Time (ML 20-1)

Dis Smart Cat and Cuddle Alert are both trying the synthetic surface for the first time; but despite the change in footing, these two shippers from downstate seem well meant here.  Spring Heat and Fast and Foxy can be expected to be prominent early; and while it's expected that they will wear each other down prior to the wire, it's possible that one breaks free from the other and has things all her own way right to the Winner's Circle.

RACE 8 - Clm $32k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Saxon Lord (ML 4-1)
# 5 Unusually Green (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 8 Anythingscookin (ML 10-1)

C's

# 2 Belisarius (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 3 Freedom Hill (ML 20-1)
# 10 Hay Dude (GB) (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 1 Lovenseek (ML 9-2)

Saxon Lord and Unusually Green are a pair of class droppers exiting the same contest; they both seem to be evenly matched, and either could prevail simply by replicating their most recent turf performance.  Anythingscookin has found the Winner's Circle often enough against classier foes this year that I think that Morning Line of 10-1 is a mirage; but you never know.

Belisarius (Ire) looks like the one that will be running best late.  Freedom Hill may be outclassed here; but Freedom Hill has enough tactical speed that he can't be easily tossed.  Hay Dude (GB) showed an affinity for this turf course last time out; perhaps he can repeat.

RACE 9 - (F) ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 6 Chocolate Goddess (ML 9-2)

B's

# 7 Exciting Dixie (ML 20-1)
# 8 Missionelle (ML 5-1)
# 10 Pequena Maty (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Vronilla Parfait (ML 15-1)
# 9 Bella Luma (ML 10-1)

# 11 Propeppy (ML 8-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 Robin's Love (ML 3-1) and # 14 Discatsonthesquare (ML 6-1)

Chocolate Goddess goes first off the claim for Trainer Aggie Ordonez, and looks capable enough to handle the step up in class. Pequena Maty took the Place at this class level last time out, with Exciting Dixie grabbing the Show behind her.  Missionelle has finished in the Trifecta in each of her last two races, both at this class level.

Vronilla Parfait has been showing steady improvement since beginning her 2017 campaign.  Bella Luma returns from a nine month vacation; and while Bella Luma is classy enough to win at this level, it's fair to presume that this contest is to just prep her for her next start.  Propeppy could be the one running best late.

RACE 10 - Clm $4k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Sizzlin' Joe (ML 8-5)

B's

# 2 Zorrito (ML 10-1)

# 5 Abbey Vale (Ire) (ML 5-2)

# 9 Lucky Shoes to Win (ML 12-1)

C's

# 3 Silver Jester (ML 12-1)

# 10 Union Legend (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Colour Me Happy (ML 3-1) and # 12 Jens de Ville (ML 12-1)

This contest is restricted to runners which have either:

1) Not won a race since September 1, 2017; OR

2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race.  If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the end of August (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $3.5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals).  For the record, # 3 Silver Jester (ML 12-1), # 8 Burger and Fries (Fr) (ML 10-1), and # 10 Union Legend (ML 15-1) are the three runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.

Sizzlin' Joe could move up with the drop in class.  Zorrito took the Place at this class level last time out, with Lucky Shoes to Win grabbing the Show behind him.  Abbey Vale (Ire) could improve with the change in surface.

Silver Jester could steal this one on the front end.  Union Legend could contend if he can rate early.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 4,5 with 6 with 1 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 4,5,8 with 6,7,8,10 with 1,2,5,9 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 4,5 with 6 with 1 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,3,10 with 6 with 1 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 4,5 with 5,9,11 with 1 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 4,5 with 6 with 3,10 $2.00

Total: $58.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 6:15 EST / 3:15 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo