12/30/17 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The card for the final Saturday of 2017 at Santa Anita features a trio of Graded Stakes, including the Grade 1 American Oaks.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Avanti Bello (Morning Line 10-1)

B’s

# 3 For Greater Glory (ML 6-1)

# 4 Camino de Estrella (ML 12-1)

# 5 Beaumarchais (ML 4-1)

# 10 Sheer Flatery (ML 3-1)

C's

# 6 Kristi's Copilot (ML 6-1)
# 8 Donworth (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 2 Just Kidding (ML 20-1)

Avanti Bello gets some significant class relief here, and should be quick enough to overcome the outside post.  For Greater Glory ships in from the east for Trainer David Jacobson, and could be the one running best late.

Camino de Estrella missed victory by just a head at this class level last time out.  Beaumarchais enters this contest with a four race winning streak.  Sheer Flatery has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three outings.

Kristi's Copilot took the Show at this class level (albeit on the turf) last time out.  Donworth should be prominent early, and could get loose on the lead should Avanti Bello falter.

RACE 7 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 New Money Honey (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Madam Dancealot (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 4 Daddys Lil Darling (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Bernina Star (ML 30-1)

# 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 8 Rymska (Fr) (ML 5-2)

With the scratch of her stablemate Rymska (Fr), this becomes New Money Honey's race to win or lose.  If New Money Honey runs her race, she wins.  The concern is that New Money Honey didn't run her race last time out in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup.  Perhaps it was because New Money Honey doesn't care for the Keeneland grass; perhaps it was because of some other reason.  Therefore, I thought it best to spread here, and place Daddys Lil Darling and Madam Dancealot (Ire), the Place and Show finishers, respectively, in the aforementioned QE II Cup, on the big ticket with New Money Honey.

Bernina Star could improve with the move back to the grass, and Bernina Star's breeding suggests that the distance should not be a problem.  Beau Recall (Ire) could work out a nice stalking trip.

RACE 8 - The Midnight Lute (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Americanize (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Silent Bird (ML 5-2)
# 6 Solid Wager (ML 10-1)

# 7 Tough Sunday (ML 8-1)
# 8 Calculator (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 4 Masochistic (ML 5-2) and # 9 Smokey Image (ML 12-1)

Americanize should benefit from the cutback in distance and class.  If Americanize doesn't run to his true talent level, then this becomes a pretty wide open affair, with Tough Sunday and Calculator being the ones to look for early, while Silent Bird and Solid Wager should be the ones running best late.

RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Comes the Dream (ML 6-1)

# 13 Banze No Oeste (Brz) (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 4 Rye Patch (ML 4-1)

# 7 Orino (ML 8-1)

# 12 Lewis Vale (ML 7-2)

# 14 Conquest Sabre Cat (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 Proud Piece (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 11 Urban Bourbon (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 6 Fishel (ML 15-1) and 9 Gonna Fly Now (ML 15-1).  Bring in # 13 Banze No Oeste (Brz) and # 14 Conquest Sabre Cat off the Also Eligible List

Comes the Dream fits well on class in his return from a twelve month absence.  Banze No Oeste (Brz) was victorious at this class level last time out, as well as three starts back.  Rye Patch was a winner at this class level two starts back.

Orino, shipping in from the east for Trainer David Jacobson, has been showing steady improvement over each of his most recent races.  Lewis Vale, also trained by David Jacobson, should be quickest early; but Lewis Vale could be compromised by the outside post.  Conquest Sabre Cat was just a head behind Banze No Oeste at the wire last time out.

Proud Piece (Ire) could move up off the freshening.  Urban Bourbon could work out a nice stalking trip.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 9 with 5 with 3,13 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,9,10 with 1,4,9 with 5 with 3,4,7,12,13,14 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 9 with 5 with 3,13 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 3,6 with 5 with 3,13 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 9 with 1,6,7,8 with 3,13 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 9 with 9 with 5 with 2,11 $1.00

Total: $56.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo