Sunday, December 31, 2017

12/31/17 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

So it is that we reach the end of 2017, as this will be the final posted play prior to the new year.  Sticking with Santa Anita, the middle spot on the three day weekend has the $75k Blue Norther as its featured race; a contest for juvenile fillies going around two turns on some California grass.  I'll be looking at that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Little Bit Lovely (Morning Line 9-2)

B’s

# 6 Arethusa (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Scatterling (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 10 Out Ofthe Ordinary (ML 8-1)
# 11 Winner's Dream (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Gift of a Star (ML 4-1)
# 2 Ryder's Starlight (ML 15-1)

# 8 Kennedie Sky (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 12 Salsita (ML 5-2) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list

Little Bit Lovely fits well here on class, and could move up with the return to the turf.  Arethusa (GB) could improve with the class drop.  Scatterling (Ire) had no luck shipping upstate last time out, and is another that should benefit from being put back on the lawn.  Out Ofthe Ordinary should be quick enough to overcome the outside draw.  Winner's Dream looks to be on the wrong surface; but Winner's Dream does seem to fit here on class.

Gift of a Star crossed under the line ahead of Little Bit Lovely last time out; but that was on the dirt at Los Alamitos.  Ryder's Starlight took the Show at this class level charging down the hill three starts back.  Kennedie Sky could take this one if she can return to the form that she displayed this past Summer.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Z Z Tiger (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Judicial (ML 5-1)
# 7 Allie's Love (ML 12-1)
# 11 Inland Empire (ML 7-2)

Z Z Tiger has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her two career starts.  Judicial ships in from Emerald Downs and moves to the barn of Trainer Mark Glatt.  Allie's Love took the Show behind Z Z Tiger in her debut last time out; perhaps the experience allows her to move up today.  Inland Empire is a first time starter that draws the services of Jockey Mike Smith.

RACE 8 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Adens Dream (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 2 Clear the Mine (ML 6-1)
# 4 Desert Law (ML 3-1)
# 5 Horse Greedy (ML 12-1)
# 6 Dr. Dorr (ML 9-2)
# 7 Aristocratic (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Lewys Vaporizer (ML 7-2)
# 8 Bobby Abu Dhabi (ML 6-1)


Adens Dream ships in from the Midwest where he has been competitive at this class level.  Adens Dream goes first time for the barn of Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such.

Clear the Mine goes first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt; perhaps the change of barn will allow Clear the Mine to make up the two plus lengths that he finished behind Desert Law last time out.  Desert Law is a lightly raced three year old who has been doing well climbing the class ladder.

Horse Greedy has been working lights out for his return to competition after a twelve month absence.  Dr. Dorr, trained by Bob Baffert, could be the on running best late.  Aristocratic took the Place at this class level last time out, and could benefit from the cut back in distance.  The "C's" are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) The Blue Norther $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Retro (ML 3-1)

B's

# 11 Multiplayer (ML 10-1)

C's

# 2 X S Gold (ML 20-1)
# 7 Silken Spy (ML 6-1)
# 9 One Fast Broad (ML 7-2)
# 10 Ippodamia's Girl (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 1 Treasuing (GB) (ML 7-2) and # 13 Mraseel (Ire) (ML 6-1).  Bring in # 12 Finess Bere (Fr) (ML 5-1) off the Also Eligible List.

Retro took the Show in the Surfer Girl over this turf course last time out.  Multiplayer picked off a Listed Stakes up at Golden Gate two starts back.

X S Gold, Silken Spy, and Ippodamia's Girl will each be facing winners for the first time; but each was also impressive enough in their respective graduations last time out to warrant consideration here.  One Fast Broad is coming off two stakes wins on the dirt after having finished fourth in the Surfer Girl; so why move One Fast Broad back to the grass?  One Fast Broad certainly fits here on class; but the surface switch is a puzzler.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 3 with 3 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,7,9,10,11 with 3 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 3,11 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,8 with 3 with 3 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,7,11 with 3 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3 with 1,8 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3 with 3 with 2,7,9,10 $2.00

Total: $37.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:01 EST / 3:01 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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