Saturday, December 16, 2017

12/16/17 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

When California Chrome won the King Glorious in 2013, he became the last stakes winner ever at Hollywood Park.  I don't know if the field in Saturday's renewal of the King Glorious at Los Al contains a California Chrome; but I do know that Bookies Luck looks like a solid standout on paper.  Whether or not Bookies Luck will be a solid standout on the track remains to be seen, as do the results of the other races on the tail end of Saturday's card, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 7 - Clm $8k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Bargaining (Morning Line 6-1)

B’s

# 6 Chromium (ML 3-1)
# 8 Justonetimebaby (ML 20-1)

C's

# 5 Summer Buddha (ML 8-1)
# 10 Bow and Arrow (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 11 Shining Hope (ML 12-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list

Chromium was a convincing winner last time out one rung down on the class ladder, with Justonetimebaby grabbing the Show behind him.  Bargaining took the Place at this class level last time out, and looks to be quickest here.  Bow and Arrow and Summer Buddha filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out, albeit around two turns.

RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Rick's Dream (ML 7-2)
# 4 Rocky's Show (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 You're a Daisy (ML 12-1)
# 5 Mostly Cloudy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Mr. Louis (ML 5-2)
# 7 Cal Cal Li Gowchis (ML 8-1)
# 8 Where's Bubba (ML 15-1)

# 9 Julia's Summer (ML 20-1)
# 10 Informality (ML 3-1)


C's

None

Scratch # 3 Justice Rules (ML 15-1)

It appears to me that Rick's Dream and Rocky's Show are the two best in this field, with Rocky's Show being the one to look for early, while Rick's Dream seems to be the one that will be running best late.  Beyond that you have a mixed collection of possibilities, from those who are dropping in for the cheapest price tag of their career, to those that have run well against less expensive stock, but without getting the Win.  While I could probably winnow at least a couple in this field off the big ticket, the fact is that I really don't have a handle on this race; and since I'm already going short in other legs in this sequence, it seems best to just run up the white flag here and punch the "ALL" button.

RACE 9 - The King Glorious $100k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Bookies Luck (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Intimidate (ML 4-1)
# 3 Minoso (ML 12-1)
# 4 Lucky Romano (ML 6-1)
# 7 Campaigner (ML 6-1)

Bookies Luck is trying two turns for the first time; which is pretty much the only concern that I have with this pick.  If Bookies Luck can make the distance without losing form, then he should be an easy winner Saturday.  If not; well, that's why I play backup tickets.

Intimidate should improve with a cleaner trip.  Minoso closed well while graduating last time out.  Lucky Romano looks poised to make a move forward.  Campaigner could improve with a better start.

RACE 10 - Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Dare to Enter (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Swallows Inn Gal (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 Magnum Maduro (ML 6-1)
# 5 Super Classic (ML 20-1)

# 7 Charming Ruler (ML 7-2)
# 9 Desert Black (ML 12-1)


Scratch # 11 High Rise, who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list

Dare to Enter took the Place at this class level in his debut two starts back.  Swallows Inn Gal is a filly taking on the boys; and she just might be quick enough to do it.

Magnum Maduro was well regarded in his debut last time out, leaving the gate as the Post Time Favorite.  Super Classic is getting some much needed class relief.  Charming Ruler took the Show at this class level at Santa Anita two starts back.  Desert Black took the Show at this class level last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 2,4 with 6 with 3 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,8,9 with ALL with 6 with 2,3 $27.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 2,4 with 6 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,4 with 2,3,4,7 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,4 with 6 with 1,5,7,9 $4.00

Total: $39.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 5:58 EST / 2:58 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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