Happy Boxing Day, a.k.a. Opening Day at Santa Anita, as the Arcadia racetrack beings its half year meet. As per tradition, the featured race on Tuesday's card is the Grade 1 Malibu; one of four Graded Stakes on the card. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - The Mathis Brothers Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Big Score (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 2 B Squared (ML 5-1)
# 3 Colonist (ML 4-1)
# 5 Bowies Hero (ML 7-2)
Big Score appears classiest here, and he could improve with the cutback in real estate. B Squared should move up with the return to turf. Colonist could get first run at the leaders before Big Score gets rolling. The last time Bowies Hero's finished in front of Big Score was in an eight furlong contest; perhaps lightning will strike twice.
RACE 7 - (F) The La Brea (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Unique Bella (ML 9-5)
# 7 Paradise Woods (ML 8-5)
B's
# 4 Mopotism (ML 12-1)
C's
None
Unique Bella and Paradise Woods are clearly two quality runners, certainly the tops in this field; but it strikes me as fair to question how they will run in this spot today. Unique Bella, much heralded (and rightly so) entering the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, just didn't have it that day; and while this is obviously a much softer spot, there's no guarantee that Unique Bella will return to top form. As for Paradise Woods, Show finisher in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, one has to wonder if seven furlongs is enough distance for her to perform her best.
Therefore, based on the above, it strikes me as reasonable to add a third runner in this field to the big ticket. For that reason I've made Mopotism a "B" Selection rather than a "C" Selection here. I believe Mopotism, three lengths behind Paradise Woods at the wire in the BC Distaff, will benefit greatly from having to go around just one turn today; and I believe that Mopotism's works over this main track earlier this month and back in October show that she can pick 'em up and put 'em down quick enough to be competitive at the seven furlong distance. Do I think Mopotism will win today? Probably not; but I think the question marks surrounding the top two contenders, coupled with Mopotism's likely price, justify using her in my play.
RACE 8 - The Malibu (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Favorable Outcome (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Edwards Going Left (ML 8-1)
# 3 Irish Freedom (ML 5-1)
# 6 Pavel (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Favorable Outcome, trained by Chad Brown, appears to be in top form. Edwards Going Left showed steady improvement in each of his Fall races. Irish Freedom and Pavel are two that could benefit from the turnback in distance.
RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Spanish Hombre (ML 5-2)
# 11 Lazzam (GB) (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Incredible Luck (ML 12-1)
# 6 Temple Keys (ML 6-1)
# 9 Chris and Dave (ML 10-1)
# 12 Winning Element (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Tule Fog (ML 15-1)
# 4 Midnight Pleasure (ML 10-1)
# 8 Accountability (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 13 Mongolian Greywolf (ML 6-1) and # 14 Any Questions (ML 6-1) as they do not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Spanish Hombre was a half length behind Lazzam (GB) at the wire last time out, when those two filled out the bottom rungs of the Trifecta at this class level. Incredible Luck could improve with the return to turf and with the blinkers being taken back off.
Temple Keys could move up going third off the layoff. Chris and Dave has won on the grass in the past, so the surface switch should cause no problems. Winning Element may be in over his head; but Winning Element sure looked much improved last time out with the move from east coast to west.
Tule Fog tries winners for the first time after graduating by charging down the hill; expect Tule Fog to be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Midnight Pleasure is probably on the wrong surface; but Midnight Pleasure certainly fits here on class. Accountability has run well in the past over this turf course, albeit against state bred only competition.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 3,7 with 4 with 5,11 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3,4,7 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,5,6,9,11,12 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,5 with 3,7 with 4 with 5,11 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3,7 with 4 with 3,4,8 $3.00
Total: $49.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:40 EST / 2:40 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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