12/3/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Maidens are the focus of the back end of the card Sunday at Golden Gate, as three-quarters of the final four races are for non-winners of one.  So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - Md $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Iwishiwaspecial (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 2 The Public Halo (ML 15-1)
# 4 Ernie Banks (ML 8-1)
# 6 Paul's Diva (ML 3-1)
# 8 Charlie Grey (ML 10-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 3 Dramatic Ride (ML 4-1)

Iwishiwaspecial took the Show at this class level last time out, over this main track, at today's distance.  The Public Halo could be quickest here; and having A. P. Indy as a grandsire suggests that The Public Halo may be able to go around two turns.

Ernie Banks closed well in his debut, and seems to have the breeding to stretch out to two turns.  Paul's Diva may have needed that last race; and Trainer Andy Mathis tends to do well with runners going second off the layoff.  Charlie Grey could be the one running best late.

RACE 7 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Impression (ML 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Brulee (ML 5-1)
# 6 Avalanche (ML 9-2)
# 7 Seau (ML 10-1)
# 8 Lion Command (ML 8-1)

Much like Saturday's contest, this event for non-claiming maidens is filled with shippers from downstate, who just couldn't wait for Boxing Day to get on some California grass.

Impression looks much the best here; but Impression is trying a route distance for the first time; and while that gave me pause when sorting out my play, I ultimately decided that the edge he has over the rest of the field, coupled with my desire to spread widely in the opening and closing legs of this sequence, warrants Impression's position as a big ticket single.

Brulee and Avalanche are two that could move up with the change of scenery.  Seau may improve now that he has a turf race under his belt, as runners for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer tend to do well when trying grass for the second time.  Lion Command took the Place at this class level last time out, and may appreciate not having to face Six Cider again.

RACE 8 - Clm $5k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Spanish Eyes (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Mambo Rock (ML 6-1)
# 5 One Tuff Minister (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Chief Banker (ML 20-1)

# 7 West Coast Indy (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Get Like Me (ML 4-1)

Spanish Eyes had a bit of a rough go of it last time out, and can be expected to improve off that effort.  Mambo Rock fits well here on class, and seems to bring his race with him regardless of surface.  One Tuff Minister produced some fine results when previously with the barn of Trainer Tim McCanna.

Chief Banker is racing above his conditions, having just graduated last time out (note that this is a N2X, not a N2L); but Chief Banker is also the only runner in this field to have finished in the money last time out.  West Coast Indy fits well here on class; but West Coast Indy seems to be  going through a down cycle, and may be in need of a freshening.

RACE 9 - Md $8k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Joe Jackson (ML 8-5)
# 10 Weiden (ML 8-1)

B's

# 1 Bold Charmant (ML 8-1)
# 3 Mon Camo (ML 10-1)
# 4 Ronton (ML 10-1)
# 5 Alicias King (ML 30-1)
# 6 Sizzling Evening (ML 10-1)
# 7 Be So Lucky (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Nationwide Fifteen (ML 20-1)
# 9 World Wide Blame (ML 10-1)

Joe Jackson appears best here in this field of juveniles, having taken the Place against more expensive stock in his debut last time out.  But that was back in July, and on dirt to boot; so this one could devolve into chaos.

Weiden ran the best race of his career the only prior time that he competed over this main track, taking the Place against more expensive stock.  Bold Charmant missed graduation by a nose at this class level two starts back.  Mon Camo could improve with the cutback in real estate.

Ronton could move up with the return to the main track.  Alicias King lost all chance at the break in his debut last time out; perhaps he does better today.  Sizzling Evening is a first time starter with Indian Charlie as a grandsire, suggesting that he may be ready to roll at first go round.  Be So Lucky has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last two starts.  The "C's" are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 2 with 2 with 8,10 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,7,8 with 2 with 2,4,5 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,10 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,6,7,8 with 2 with 8,10 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 2 with 3,7 with 8,10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 2 with 2 with 2,9 $1.00

Total: $69.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:15 EST / 3:15 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo