Sunday, December 17, 2017

12/17/17 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

And so we come to the closing day of the Winter Meet at Los Alamitos Race Course.  I don't know why they call it the Winter Meet, as it's still Fall.  But then again, they can't call it the Fall Meet, because that's what they call their September Meet, even though all those dates are in the Summer.  Ideally, the September Meet should be called the Fairgrounds Meet, because Los Al took over the dates that used to be run over at Fairplex / Pomona / Los Angeles County Fairgrounds, and the December Meet should be called the Fall Meet.  But I imagine I may be one of only about a half dozen people on the planet who actually care about such things.  Anyway, whatever you call it, it ends Sunday.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 7 - Clm $16k N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Lindante (Morning Line 9-2)

B’s

# 3 American League (ML 3-1)
# 4 Flash Henry (ML 4-1)
# 8 Harrovian (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Lindante seems to settle for too many minor awards; but he's one-for-five lifetime over this track, and is certainly in top form.  American League won the speed duel at this class level last time out but lost the race, having to settle for the Show.  Flash Henry is getting some much needed class relief, while Harrovian moves up the class ladder after winning convincingly last time out.

RACE 8 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Li'l Grazen (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 5 Dangerously Close (ML 5-1)
# 7 Troublesome (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Yalisha (ML 9-2)
# 3 Coalinga Hills (ML 4-1)
# 8 Lady's War Dress (ML 20-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for fillies and mares which have not won two races in their career; no exemptions.  Each of these runners have visited the Winner's Circle once, and only once, in their career.

Li'l Grazen took the Show at this class level last time out at Del Mar.  Dangerously Close goes first off the claim for Trainer Genaro Vallejo, who has been having a very impressive meet.  Troublesome took the Show last time out against stiffer competition.

Yalisha was first under the wire the last time she competed on a Fast dirt track, but a DQ moved her back to second.  Coalinga Hills may be better suited to turf than dirt; but Coalinga Hills has been working well over this main track.  Lady's War Dress was impressive winning her debut over this main track last time out; but last time out twelve months ago.

RACE 9 - Alw 12500s - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Tasunke Witco (ML 3-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 2 Seeking the West (ML 5-2)
# 3 Sense of Glory (ML 4-1)
# 5 Mon Mousse (ML 5-1)

We saw the distaff version of this contest in Race 5 on Friday.  Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry; but it does have a class/recency Win restriction.  So in addition to the requirement that the runner seeking to be entered must have started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less, either this year or last, he must ALSO have not won a claiming, starter, or optional claiming race exceeding that $12.5k price tag in the time period after competing in that $12.5k claiming contest.

So the two questions to answer if you wanted to run your horse here are:

1)  Did he run for a claiming price of $12.5k or less in either 2016 or 2017?  If "Yes", then proceed to:
2)  Has he won since, in a race where he was entered for more than that $12.5k tag?  If "No", then you're good to go.

So in this field, every runner excepting # 1 Hot Perfection (ML 10-1) was eligible to be claimed for $12.5k or less last time out.  Since (obviously) none of those have won since their last race, they're eligible to run here.  As for Hot Perfection, he was eligible to be claimed (and, indeed, was claimed) for $6.25k back on July 23.  Since Hot Perfection did not get his picture taken in any of the three races that he ran since that July 23 contest, he's good to go here.

Tasunke Witco appears to have a clear class edge here, having won at the $12.5k Claiming level last time out over this main track.  Tasunke Witco also won for $16k three starts back at Del Mar.

Seeking the West took the Place behind a next out winner last time out.  Sense of Glory fought back hard after being passed to take the Place in front of a next out winner last time out.  Mon Mousse can be expected to be quick early; but the concern with Mon Mousse is will his early speed stay with him as he moves up the class ladder.

RACE 10 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Spend It (ML 4-1)

B's

# 2 Southern Thunder (ML 9-2)
# 3 Royal Seeker (ML 10-1)
# 8 Is Trevor Clever (ML 3-1)
# 10 Mr. Matlock (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Vow's Son (ML 6-1)
# 4 Haylord (ML 15-1)
# 6 Sun Kingdom (ML 30-1)
# 7 Downside Up (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 9 Hailey's Kid Comet (ML 20-1)

Spend It crossed under the wire first at this class level last time out, but had to settle for the Place due to a DQ.  Southern Thunder took the Show at this class level last time out.  Royal Seeker may be settling for too many minor awards; but Royal Seeker fits well with the contenders here.

Is Trevor Clever took the Show against winners three starts back, albeit on the grass.  Mr. Matlock drops in for a tag for the first time.  The "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 4 with 8 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,6,8 with 4,5,7 with 8 with 2,3,5,8,10 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,3,8 with 8 with 5 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 2,3,5 with 5 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 8 with 1,4,6,7 $2.00

Total: $36.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 5:58 EST / 2:58 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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