It's Belmont Stakes Eve, and the good people at NYRA have put together a fine card loaded with stakes and other competitive contests. As is our wont we'll be looking at the final four races on the program, as we take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Championship Track.
RACE 8 - The True North (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Catalina Red (Morning Line 2-1)
# 6 Always Sunshine (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Holy Boss (ML 6-1)
# 2 Joking (ML 20-1)
# 4 Dads Caps (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 3 Private Zone (ML 8-5)
The scratch of Private Zone is certainly one of the more bizarre stories in horse racing this year. Briefly, the New York State Gaming Commission announced Wednesday that Private Zone's trainer, Brian Lynch. is ineligible to participate in New York racing for an indefinite period. According to Private Zone's owner, Rene Douglas, the reason for the suspension is because Lynch tested positive for marijuana in a random drug test.
Leaving aside any debate as to whether or not the punishment fits the crime for Lynch, it's difficult to justify why Private Zone should be scratched for Lynch's transgression. After all, jockeys can be changed right up until Post Time. Even ownership can change in many jurisdictions after the programs have been printed. So there's no logical reason why Private Zone shouldn't be allowed to run with a different trainer. To put it in other sports terms, it would be as if the manager or coach of a team tested positive for marijuana use, and for that reason the team was forced to forfeit an upcoming game scheduled two days later, rather than being allowed to play with a different manager or coach.
But of course, that's just my opinion.
Catalina Red had a breakout performance last time out, winning the Grade 2 Churchill Downs while competing for the first time for the barn of Trainer Jorge Navarro. Always Sunshine, winner of the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap last time out, has four Wins and two seconds in his last six starts. The "C" Selections are everyone else. I feel the scratch of Morning Line Favorite Private Zone adds the possibility of chaos to this contest, and for the reason I want to be sure that I survive this leg.
RACE 9 - (F) The New York (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 1 Sea Calisi (Fr) (ML 2-1)
# 5 Photo Call (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Dacita (Chi) (ML 3-1)
# 3 Trophee (Fr) (ML 12-1)
Sea Calisi (Fr) won the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay in her North American debut last time out, and could improve competing over a firmer surface. Photo Call (Ire), winner of the Grade 3 Orchid last time out, could have things all her own way through the early going and perhaps right up to the wire.
Dacita (Chi) has yet to return to the form that she showed in her North American debut last Summer, when she won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa up at Saratoga. But Dacita did close well two starts back in the Grade 3 The Very One, and she certainly has the talent to compete at this level.
Trophee (Fr) looked much improved picking up the Win last time out against lesser company; perhaps Trophee is finally ready to take the next step forward.
RACE 10 - The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational $300k - Sixteen Furlongs Widener Turf
A’s
# 5 Da Big Hoss (ML 3-1)
B's
# 7 Rum Tum Tugger (ML 20-1)
# 9 Kaigun (ML 4-1)
# 10 My Afleet (ML 30-1)
# 12 Twilight Eclipse (ML 8-1)
# 13 Now We Can (GB) (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 6 Tiz Town (ML 15-1)
Da Big Hoss has three Graded Stakes Wins at the twelve furlong distance over the past nine months, and looks to have the breeding to make it the full two miles without having to stop first for air. Rum Tum Tugger finished well in the twelve furlong Secretariat down in Virginia last time out.
Kaigun won the Grade 2 Pan American at the twelve furlong distance back in April. My Afleet may have needed that last race after the twelve month layoff.
Twilight Eclipse seems to have made a career out of being not quite good enough; but perhaps Jockey Javier Castellano, who was on board the last time that Twilight Eclipse got his picture taken, can lead him back into the Winner's Circle today. Now We Can (GB), making his North American debut, has shown steady improvement in each of his 2016 starts.
RACE 11 - [S] Md $40k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 3 Great Skellig (ML 3-1)
# 7 Street Fightin Man (ML 7-2)
B's
# 4 Courageous Colonel (ML 15-1)
# 9 Rooftop View (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Cuckoo's Saloon (ML 5-1); # 12 Irish Prayer (ML 7-2); # 13 Vino Blanco (ML 6-1); # 14 Oh So Sinister (ML 50-1). Also take out # 15 Fa Niente (ML 5-2) and # 16 No Tanx Blue Chip (ML 2-1), as they were entered for the main track only, and this baby is staying on the grass.
Great Skellig adds the hood and drops in for a tag for his second career start; Trainer Christophe Clement tends to do well when making those moves. Street Fightin Man, making his 2016 debut after undergoing the ultimate equipment change, has taken the Show at this class level three times in his last five starts.
Courageous Colonel took the Show at this class level last time out, and could be the controlling speed here, even with the blinkers coming off. Rooftop View gets some much needed class relief.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,6 with 1,5 with 5 with 3,7 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,5 with 5,7,9,10,12,13 with 3,4,7,9 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4 with 1,5 with 5 with 3,7 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 2,3 with 5 with 3,7 $4.00
Total: $66.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:42 EDT / 1:42 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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