Hey, where did everybody go? No, I don't mean you dear reader; and I do mean dear reader, as I want you to know that I appreciate you all, even those of you who come here just to point and laugh. No, what I meant was, where did all the horses go? Sunday's card at Santa Anita has nine races with only fifty-four entrants; and that's before any scratches! Granted, the closing of the turf course no doubt is a huge factor in this equation; but did the "Keep Off The Grass" sign really scare aware that many runners? And what does this portend for the upcoming holiday weekend?
Of course, on the other side of the coin, small fields need not mean dull races. A contest with six entrants of equal ability is certainly more fun to handicap than a contest with one standout and nine also-rans fighting for minor awards (at least, if you're playing multi-race wagers, which is what we mostly do here). So with that, let's just play the hand we're dealt, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $32k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Big Break (Morning Line 9-5)
B’s
# 1 Watch This Cat (ML 4-1)
# 2 Gracie Ragazza (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Big Break ran in the Grade 2 Santa Maria earlier this year. Well, perhaps "ran" is not quite the right term; but she was in the field. Big Break took the Show against OC $62k/N2X company last time out after doing all the heavy lifting on the front end in that contest.
Watch This Cat tries real dirt for the first time in her career; her workouts over this main track suggest that she should handle the surface switch just fine. Gracie Ragazza defeated $40k/N$Y Optional Claimers at today's distance two starts back.
RACE 7 - Alw 20000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Ish (ML 3-1)
# 5 Surfing the Menu (ML 9-5)
B’s
None
C's
None
Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career (N2L), as the Daily Racing Form does not include that information in their Past Performances; at least not at the present time. Does anyone know why the DRF excludes that information?
Also note that this contest is only for those runners which broke their maiden for $20k or less. So whether or not a horse ran against winners for a tag of $20k or less is meaningless; the only way to qualify for this event is to have graduated at the $20k level or lower (and, for the record, all runners in this race graduated at the Md $20k level).
Ish won last time out by the length of the grandstand, crossing the wire more than a dozen lengths in front of her nearest rival. For Ish that was her first time in for a tag as well as her first time on real dirt. The only question here is will she be quick enough at this shortened distance.
Surfing the Menu missed victory by just a head last time out against classier competition. Surfing the Menu could benefit from having to cover less real estate today.
RACE 8 - [S] The McCann's Mojave $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 El Huerfano (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Songforjohnmichael (ML 5- 2)
# 4 Avanti Bello (ML 9-5)
C's
None
El Huerfano defeated non-state restricted company two starts back over this main track in an OC $62k/N2X contest. Songforjohnmichael disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out when he couldn't survive the speed duel against Avanti Bello in The Tiznow. I think Songforjohnmichael can improve off that effort at what I expect will be a much better price.
Avanti Bello hit the wire a nose in front of # 3 Soi Phet (ML 2-1) last time out in the Tiznow. Note that Soi Phet is not on today's ticket. While I think that Soi Phet is a must use in all your intra-race exotics, I feel that Soi Phet settles for far too many minor awards to considered a serious Win contender. So if Soi Phet wins today, this play loses.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Feldini (ML 8-1)
# 6 Picture Tube (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Hank the Tank (ML 7-2)
# 5 Candy Promises (ML 3-1)
# 7 Gabo's Macondo (ML 15-1)
C's
None
Feldini adds blinkers and will be administered Lasix for the first time; those factors, plus the return to one turn racing, suggest that Feldini could give a much improved effort. Picture Tube is a first time starter sired by Malibu Moon and trained by Bob Baffert, two factors that suggest that Picture Tube should be ready to roll at first asking.
Hank the Tank and Candy Promises are both going first off the claim for two trainers (Mike Puype and Bill Spawr, respectively) who tend to be successful with that move. Also enhancing the chances for Hank the Tank and Candy Promises is that, while these two are moving up in class, none of the other runners in this field have ever finished in the money at the MSW level.
Gabo's Macondo gets off the grass and competes on the main track for the first time in his career. Gabo's Macondo will also be adding blinkers today, and therefore should be more forwardly placed in the early going.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 4,5 with 5 with 2,6 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5 with 4,5 with 2,4,5 with 2,3,5,6,7 $45.00
Total: $49.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:59 EDT / 3:59 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment