RACE 8 - (F) The Just A Game (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf
A's
# 7 Mrs McDougal (Morning Line 4-1)
# 8 Celestine (ML 12-1)
B's
# 1 Strike Charmer (ML 8-1)
# 5 My Miss Sophia (ML 8-1)
# 9 Irish Rookie (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 12 Rainha Da Bateria (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Mrs McDougal seems well suited to today's one mile distance. Indeed, toss her efforts beyond a mile and a sixteenth and Mrs McDougal's turf record is four Wins in five tries, including a victory in the Grade 2 Lake George last Summer. Celestine wired the field in the Grade 2 Honey Fox last time out; and while she probably won't be the front runner today, Celestine has shown the ability in the past to win coming off the pace, as she did in The Wait a While last year over this turf course.
Strike Charmer, winner of the Grade 3 Beaugay last time out, has been showing a steadily improving form in her 2016 starts. My Miss Sophia had to settle for fourth behind Strike Charmer in that Beaugay when she ran out of gas in the stretch. I expect My Miss Sophia to display better stamina in this, her second start off the layoff.
Irish Rookie (Ire) makes her North American debut and may find the competition in this one somewhat softer than the Group Stakes company that she has been facing. Rainha Da Bateria took the Place last time out in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile and may be able to build off that effort in her second start for the barn of Trainer chad Brown.
RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Blofeld (ML 10-1)
# 5 Frosted (ML 7-2)
# 7 Stanford (ML 5-1)
B's
# 11 Calculator (ML 10-1)
# 13 Marking (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Noble Bird (ML 9-2)
# 6 Upstart (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1 El Kabeir (ML 30-1), # 3 Donworth (ML 20-1), and # 9 Sloane Avenue (ML 15-1)
Blofeld hit the wire a head in front of Stanford two starts back in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, which was the last time each of those runners competed at today's distance. Frosted stands out as the class of this field; though it's fair to wonder if one mile is enough distance for Frosted to do his best work.
Calculator has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last three starts, all against Graded Stakes company. Marking makes his first North American starts since taking the Place in the Grade 1 Malibu.
Noble Bird won the Grade 3 Pimlico Special by the length of the stretch last time out; but it's unlikely that Noble Bird will get to have things all his own way up front again today. Upstart won the Grade 3 Oaklawn Handicap two starts back; though it't fair to question the need to add blinkers at this stage of his career.
RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 10 Flintshire (ML 8-5)
B's
# 2 Slumber (GB) (ML 10-1)
C's
# 6 Ironicus (ML 4-1)
# 11 Divisidero (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Wake Forest (Ger) (ML 10-1) and # 4 Take the Stand (Arg) (ML 15-1)
Flintshire (GB) is the standout class of this field, with earnings of over $7.5 million is nineteen career starts. The one concern I have is how Flintshire will handle a softer going should the storms arrive prior to Post Time for this event.
Slumber (GB) is the defending champ, having won this event by daylight last year. Yeah, Slumber hasn't seen the Winner's Circle since; but it had also been a long time since Slumber had seen the Winner's Circle prior to winning The Manhattan last year.
Ironicus steps up in company after finishing in the Exacta in each of his last eight starts. Divisidero won the Grade 1 Turf Classic last time out, but will need to show a better effort than he did in last year's Belmont Derby, the last time that Divisidero tried ten furlongs.
RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 11 Exaggerator (ML 9-5)
B's
# 5 Stradivari (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Destin (ML 6-1)
# 6 Gettysburg (ML 30-1)
# 6 Gettysburg (ML 30-1)
# 10 Lani (ML 20-1)
Exaggerator is the best horse in this field; the only question I can see is will he be able to make the full mile and a half. Stradivari should be forwardly placed early and may get first run on the leaders. Destin, winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby two starts back, should improve over his effort in the Kentucky Derby.
Gettysburg could be all alone up front in the early going; and as a son of Pioneerof the Nile, Gettysburg may still be all alone up front at the wire. The connections of Lani have had this race as their focus since the Triple Crown season began; and for that reason alone Lani deserves consideration.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7,8 with 2,5,7 with 10 with 11 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,5,7,8,9,12 with 2,5,7,11,13 with 2,10 with 5,11 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 4,6 with 10 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 2,5,7 with 6,11 with 11 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 2,5,7 with 10 with 2,6,10 $9.00
Total: $83.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:58 EDT / 12:58 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment