6/4/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

There's a pair of Grade 1 stakes on the Santa Anita card Saturday, including The Vanity Mile featuring Beholder.  And while neither of those events are a part of the final four races on the program, we have been given a set of competitive contests to sort out.  So let's get to it as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 1 Reflected Star (Morning Line 12-1)
# 2 Nat's Nation (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 10 Broken Up (ML 6-1)

C's

# 7 Moose Skowron (ML 10-1)
# 11 Schillairess (ML 7-2)

Scratch # 3 Dream Police (ML 8-1) and # 6 If You Dream (ML 6-1).  # 13 Melville (ML 30-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List, but the maiden, # 14 Mischievous Bull (ML 20-1), will run.

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career (N2L), as the Daily Racing Form does not include that information in their Past Performances; at least not at the present time.

Reflected Star ran reasonably well in each of his three prior career tries charging down the hill, all against classier competition.  Nat's Nation tries both winners and open (non-state bred restricted) company for the first time; quite a step up in class; but if Nat's Nation can repeat his last out performance, then he stands an excellent chance of getting his picture taken today.

Broken Up was within two lengths of the winner at the wire at this class level last time out on the grass upstate.  Moose Skowron tries the turf for the first time for Trainer Phil D'Amato.  After spending fifty-one weeks on the shelf since winning his debut, Schillairess goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who is often successful with such.

RACE 9 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Westfest (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Alley Boss (ML 12-1)
# 8 Horse Greedy (ML 9-2)
# 10 Jaw Dropper (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Mucho Chrome (ML 15-1)
# 2 Americanize (ML 6-1)

Westfest has finished in the Trifecta in each of his two career starts, each at this class level.  Alley Boss is a first time starter sired by Twirling Candy, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  Also note that Alley Boss's Tomlinson Rating suggests that he is well suited to today's distance.

Horse Greedy took the Place at this class level last time out.  Jaw Dropper was up close early in his debut last time out.  Mucho Chrome may not have liked the off going last time out.  Americanize is a debut runner sired by Concord Point, whose descendants tend to do well in their first attempts.

RACE 10 - OC 40k/C - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Dreaming of Gold (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Fusaichi Samurai (ML 3-1)
# 5 Carlsbad Mountain (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Warden of the West (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 6 D Day Dude (ML 12-1)

Dreaming of Gold, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place at this approximate class level last time out.  Fusaichi Samurai has finished in the Exacta in each of his career starts on a Fast dirt track.  Carlsbad Mountain has taken the Show in each of his last two starts at this approximate class level.  Warden of the West should improve with the return to dirt.

RACE 11 - OC 40k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Hobbits Hero (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Tristan's Trilogy (ML 6-1)

# 2 Film Freak (ML 12-1)

C's

# 7 To the Bar (ML 12-1)

# 11 St. Joe Bay (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 3 Little Scotty (ML 12-1), # 6 Act (ML 8-1), and # 10 Undeniable U (ML 4-1).  Do not bring in # 13 Opsec (ML 8-1) from the Also Eligible List, but # 14 Awesome Return (ML 12-1) will run.

Hobbits Hero defeated classier competition over this turf course last time out.  Tristan's Trilogy missed victory by a head against stakes competition last time out.  Film Freak took the Place at this approximate class level two starts back.

To the Bar took the Show at this approximate class level last time out, and could improve with the cutback in distance.  St. Joe Bay has shown himself to be competitive at this class level, and may have things all his own way in the early going.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,2 with 9 with 7 with 8 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,10 with 7,8,9,10 with 2,5,7 with 1,2,8 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7,11 with 9 with 7 with 8 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 1,2 with 7 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 9 with 3 with 8 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 9 with 7 with 7,11 $2.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 5:29 EDT / 8:29 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo