6/5/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

I really don't have anything useful to say by way of introduction today.  So instead I'll just link to this article by Bob Ehalt on ESPN called "When to use the 'All' button".  I suspect it may come in handy on occasion.  And with that, let's get to it as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 6 Scuderia (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 5 Giant Influence (ML 5-2)
# 9 Blackjackcat (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Airlite (ML 9-2)
# 3 Guapo Diablo (ML 8-1)
# 4 Jagger Swagger (ML 15-1)

The conditions state that this contest is for maidens three years old and upward; but all entrants are in fact three years old.  Something worth keeping in mind for future reference.

Scuderia missed victory by just a head charging down the hill at this class level last time out.  Giant Influence took the Show on the main track in his debut last time out.  As Giant Influence was sired by Giant's Causeway, I would expect him to, at the very least, hold his form with the surface switch.  Blackjackcat showed brief early speed on the dirt in his debut last time out, and should do well with the move to the turf.

The "C" Selections are all the other experienced runners in the field.  I won't have any of the three first time starters (# 1 Uber Star (ML 15-1); # 7 Can't Touch That (ML 15-1); and # 8 Oregon (ML 10-1)) on my tickets; so if one of them win, I lose.

RACE 7 - Clm $8k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Dustin's Passion (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 4 Destino (ML 20-1)
# 8 Northern Iowa (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Misdeed (ML 4-1)
# 6 Celebrity Status (ML 4-1)

Dustin's Passion has finished in the Trifecta in nine of his eleven career starts, and seems to hold his form well in both sprints and routes.  Destino has two (one, two) career Wins in sixty-one career starts; not exactly your typical "B" Selection on a Pick Four ticket.  But Destino has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, earned at a distance (6.5 Furlongs) very close to today's.  So while I may not be the world's biggest fan of Beyer Speed Figures, when the one with the best in the field is a Morning Line 20-1, I think he deserves a spot on the big ticket.

Northern Iowa missed victory by just a neck the last time he raced around just one turn.  The last time prior to that that Northern Iowa competed around just one turn, he got the Win.

Misdeed was backing up in the stretch last time out going around two turns; perhaps he improves with the cutback in distance.  Celebrity Status won the last two times that he competed at this class level.

RACE 8 - OC 75k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Navy Hymm (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 1 Annie's Candy (ML 3-1)
# 6 Who's Out (ML 9-5)

C's

# 5 Big Finish (ML 6-1)

Navy Hymm has finished in the Exacta in all seven of his career starts, and is a perfect four-for-four lifetime over this main track.  Annie's Candy should appreciate the class relief that he is getting today.  

Who's Out tries winners for the first time after graduating by as many as he wanted to last time out.  Who's Out is making his first start of 2016, but his work over this main track on May 29 suggests that Who's Out is ready to fire.  Big Finish made a big move forward last time out after shipping out to Arizona.  If he can bring that form with him in his return to California, then Big Finish can be right in the mix today.

RACE 9 - Hcp 25000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 4 Rangi (GB) (ML 5-1)

# 5 Incline Village (ML 6-1)

# 6 Atta Boy Pete (ML 7-2 )

B’s

# 1 Second Proposal (ML 8-1)
# 8 Infinite Magic (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Back to Bako (ML 20-1)
# 3 Image of Joplin (ML 9-2)
# 7 Pray Hard (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 Eddie's First (ML 6-1)

Rangi (GB) and Incline Village took the Place and Show, respectively, in the same contest charging down the hill last time out.  Atta Boy Pete, trained by Phil D'Amato, took was a well beaten seventh in that contest, disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  As Atta Boy Pete has won both of his prior tries charging down the hill, it's fair to presume that Attab Boy Pete will rebound off that effort.

Second Proposal exits the same last out race as the three "A" Selections, having filled out bottom position in the Superfecta in that contest.  As Second Proposal has won his prior try charging down the hill, he stands an excellent chance of improving today.

Infinite Magic took the Place in each of his two prior lifetime tries charging down the hill.  The "C" Selections are everyone else.  This appears to be a very competitive contest, which probably explains why it was chosen to be the Super High Five race despite the relatively small field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 10 with 3 with 4,5,6 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,6,9 with 4,8,10 with 1,3,6 with 1,4,5,6,8 $67.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4 with 10 with 3 with 4,5,6 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,6 with 3 with 4,5,6 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 10 with 5 with 4,5,6 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 10 with 3 with 2,3,7 $1.50

Total: $81.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:29 EDT / 4:29 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo