5/18/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Preakness weekend, with the Black-Eyed Susan running today and the middle jewel of The Triple Crown on tap for Saturday.  But there'll be no Pimlico picks from me over the next couple of days, because the Baltimore track is presently a quagmire, with even more rain in the forecast prior to the big event.  So with things soggy in the East I will turn my attention to the West; as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 5 - Hcp 16000s - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 My Man Chuckles (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Tough It Out (ML 4-1)
# 7 El Tovar (ML 7-2)

C's

# 6 Muchos Besos (ML 8-1)
# 9 Lewis Vale (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Beaumarchais (ML 4-1) and # 3 Unusual Meeting (ML 20-1)

My Man Chuckles is undefeated in two starts since joining the barn of Trainer Richard Baltas.  Tough It Out won over this turf course at today's distance last time out.  El Tovar, winner of each of his last two races, goes first off the claim for Trainer David Jacobson, who has been doing well with such.

Muchos Besos projects to be the early speed, and will try to steal this one on the front end.  Lewis Vale fits well here on class, and has shown the ability in the past to win on the grass.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Explorer (ML 4-1)
# 10 Beneficent (ML 5-2)
# 11 Julius (ML 6-1)

B's

# 9 Flagstaff (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Henry County (ML 8-1)

# 5 Holiday Bay (ML 12-1)

# 6 Calabasas (ML 12-1)

EDIT - # 7 Runaway Saturday (ML 6-1) has been scratched.  The tickets below have been updated accordingly.

This non-Winners of One contest drew very well; and it would not surprise were this event to turn into a key race.

In my opinion, this race goes through the Morning Line Favorite, Beneficent.  Beneficent disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, winning the speed duel but running out of gas before the wire, and just holding on for the Place.  The two runners Beneficent finished between in that contest, Kidmon and King Cause, both ran well their next time out; and Beneficent has worked well since that race in preparation for this event.

The concern with Beneficent is that he may find himself in yet another speed duel today, as there are several here that look to be at least as quick as he.  And while Beneficent has been working well, it is a bit of a concern that it took him nearly two months to find his way back into the starting gate.  Finally, as good a trainer as Art Sherman is, his runners often don't move forward in their second start; and I believe Beneficent will need to improve off that initial effort if he is to get his picture taken today.

So, weighting the pros and cons, I decided to spread a bit in this leg.  Explorer and Julius are a pair of first time starters for Trainer Bob Baffert.  Flagstaff is a debut runner for Trainer John Sadler.  Both trainers are accustomed to winning with those competing for the first time, and all three runners have been working well.

Runaway Saturday took the Show in his debut last time out behind Bolt d'Oro after stumbling badly at the start.  The backup "C" Selections are three more first time starters that look like they're ready to roll.

RACE 7 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Jay Makes Us Laugh (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 4 Popular Kid (ML 3-1)

# 5 Trapalanda (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Shaymin (ML 9-2)

Jay Makes Us Laugh fits well here on class; now it's just a question of can he make the distance.  Popular Kid ran well in defeat last time out, and could improve with the blinkers being added.

Trapalanda won at this class level the last time today's rider, Rafael Bejarano, was on his back.  Shaymin took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on the turf.

RACE 8 - Alw 50000s - OC 32k/N2L  - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Dreams of Valor (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 2 Hot American (ML 5-2)

# 4 Winning Element (ML 2-1)

# 5 Taniko (ML 4-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 7 Zippy Groom (ML 12-1)

This contest is an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid, and it's written as follows:  first requirement is the runner must have started for a claiming price of $50k or less.  That's the Starter Allowance provision.  After that hurdle is cleared, it's an N2L Optional Claimer; if your horse has just one victory, then it runs without fear of being claimed.  More than one lifetime Win, and he runs with a $40k price tag on his head.  For the record, # 1 For Him (ML 12-1) is the only runner in this contest with more than one visit to the Winner's Circle, and therefore eligible to be claimed.

Dreams of Valor has run well in the past against classier competition at today's distance.  Hot American won his debut by daylight over this turf course last time out.  Winning Element took the Place behind a next out winner last time out.  Taniko looks to be the one that will be running best late.

And I'm over budget.  Oh well; sometimes that can't be helped.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 4,10,11 with 7 with 6 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,7 with 4,9,10,11 with 4,5,7 with 2,4,5,6 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6,9 with 4,10,11 with 7 with 6 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,6 with 7 with 6 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,10,11 with 2 with 6 $1.50

Total: $81.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:30 EDT / 2:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo